宏观月报 | 海外资金行为“新变化”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The article discusses the resilience of the US economy in July, highlighting better-than-expected economic performance and the impact of strong Q2 earnings reports, which led to a reversal in global capital "rebalancing" towards the US [2][8] - In July, the US inflation unexpectedly increased, with online retail prices rising due to higher tariffs, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating economic strength despite structural weaknesses [3][9] - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, attracting foreign capital back to the US, with foreign investments in US stocks increasing by $11.36 billion [3][18] Group 2 - In July, China's "anti-involution" policies gained traction, with multiple measures implemented to alleviate cost pressures and improve profit margins, particularly in upstream sectors [4][40] - The "anti-involution" policies positively impacted supply-side prices, with the PMI for major raw material purchasing prices rising by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, indicating reduced cost pressures [51] - However, demand-side performance remained weak, with external demand showing temporary improvement compared to internal demand, as evidenced by a 9% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles [61] Group 3 - In August, the focus will shift to the labor market trends in the US and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies in China, with concerns about the potential for rising unemployment rates [5][73] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, with a contraction in the number of people finding jobs, indicating a potential weakening of domestic demand [5][73] - China's policies are expected to continue influencing the market, particularly in terms of structural monetary policy tools and the impact on consumer demand [5][40]