美股IPO·2025-08-18 15:15Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to be critical, especially in the context of high market expectations for monetary easing, with various banks predicting a hawkish stance from Powell contrary to market beliefs [2][5][11]. Group 1: Economic Context - Barclays analysts argue that the current economic backdrop is significantly different from last year, suggesting that the market's confidence in a rate cut is misplaced [3][4]. - The current policy interest rate is 100 basis points lower compared to the same time last year, with core PCE inflation expected to accelerate above 3% [4][9]. - Despite a slowdown in employment growth, the labor market remains resilient, and consumer spending shows strength, as evidenced by upward revisions in July retail sales data [4][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Labor Market - Bank of America emphasizes that the core inflation rate remains above 3%, and the labor market's resilience provides the Fed with sufficient reasons to maintain a strong stance [9][10]. - The latest inflation data shows a year-on-year increase in core CPI to 3.1% in July, up from 2.9% in June, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [9][10]. - Concerns about inflation are heightened by external factors such as tariffs, which are expected to impact consumer prices and inflation expectations [12]. Group 3: Fed's Policy Outlook - Nomura anticipates that Powell will hint at the possibility of policy easing but will maintain a cautious overall stance due to upcoming economic data [11]. - The Fed's ongoing policy framework review may lead to a re-evaluation of its approach to inflation and interest rates, potentially abandoning the "flexible average inflation targeting" [14]. - The political dynamics surrounding the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could also affect the integrity of future economic data, raising concerns about the accuracy of employment and inflation estimates [12].