美国信用下滑与AI狂欢同台演出，谁会先谢幕？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the gradual decline of the "American exceptionalism" and the implications of rising fiscal deficits and debt levels on the U.S. economy and global markets [2][12]. Economic Overview - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.2% of GDP, with total national debt nearing $36.22 trillion [2][11]. - Approximately 31.4% of U.S. debt will need to be refinanced within the next 12 months, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies [2][11]. - The U.S. has experienced 23 consecutive years of fiscal deficits since 2002, with the 2024 deficit expected to be 6.2% of GDP [5][11]. Market Dynamics - Initial jobless claims reached 226,000, with continuing claims rising to 1.974 million, the highest since 2021, indicating potential labor market weaknesses [6]. - The divergence in performance among major indices (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) reflects significant market uncertainty regarding future economic conditions [6]. - New tariff policies could impose an estimated cost of $300 billion on American households, although government subsidies and tax cuts may have limited effectiveness [7]. Investment Insights - Professor Aswath Damodaran emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between "story" and "cash flow" in investment decisions, suggesting that while narratives can drive market enthusiasm, actual cash flow is crucial for valuation [6][7]. - The example of Nvidia, with a market valuation exceeding $4.4 trillion, raises questions about whether future cash flows can justify such high valuations, especially if demand in the AI sector slows or competition increases [6][7]. - Investors are advised to apply discounted cash flow (DCF) models to assess the reasonableness of current stock prices based on future earnings potential [7]. Structural Challenges - The U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 120%, the highest level in 60 years, complicating fiscal recovery efforts [9][11]. - Political polarization in Congress hampers long-term structural reforms, leading to a reliance on short-term stimulus measures [8][12]. - The article suggests that the U.S. economy, while still robust, faces challenges akin to a seasoned marathon runner experiencing wear and tear, necessitating adjustments in fiscal strategy to maintain competitiveness [12].