邱冠华：低利率背景下我国商业银行估值修复的底层逻辑｜资本市场

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of China's commercial banks experiencing pressure on performance due to low interest rates while their stock prices continue to reach new highs. It proposes a strategic thinking framework to understand the underlying logic of the valuation recovery of commercial banks and explores the sustainability of this recovery process [3]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Since 2019, interest rates in China have been on a downward trend, leading to a continuous narrowing of net interest margins. As of June 30, 2025, the 1-year and 5-year LPR were 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, down 125 basis points and 135 basis points from August 2019 [5]. - The asset side of banks faces competitive pressure to lower loan rates, while the liability side has rigid deposit rates, resulting in a faster decline in asset yields compared to liability costs. By Q1 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.43%, a decrease of 74 basis points from 2019 [5]. - Interest income constitutes a significant portion of banks' revenue, averaging 79% from 2019 to 2024. The compound growth rate of interest income for 42 listed banks over the past five years was 2.9%, while the growth rate of interest-earning assets was 8.1%, indicating a clear trend of "volume compensating for price" [6]. Group 2: Performance vs. Stock Price - Despite a significant slowdown in profit growth and overall performance pressure for listed banks in 2023, their stock prices have reached new highs. The average growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders for listed banks from 2023 to mid-2024 was 1.9%, a decline of about 5.0% compared to the average from 2019 to 2022 [8]. - The banking sector's performance ranked 13th among 31 secondary industries in terms of net profit growth from 2023 to 2024, indicating that it did not outperform other sectors. However, the banking sector's cumulative stock price increase was 88%, ranking 4th among the same industries [8]. - Individual banks such as ICBC, Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China saw cumulative stock price increases exceeding 100%, despite their average net profit growth being similar to the sector average [8]. Group 3: Strategic Perspective on Bank Stock Performance - A fundamental analysis of commercial banks does not adequately explain the stock price increases over the past two years. A strategic perspective is suggested to analyze factors that have altered investor expectations, leading to changes in value [10]. - The current bull market for bank stocks is driven by multiple factors, including a decline in the risk-free rate, improved risk assessment, and decreased risk appetite among investors. These factors have a more significant impact than the pressure on performance [10]. - The decline in the risk-free rate enhances the overall valuation of banks. As of now, the yield on 10-year government bonds has dropped to 1.6% to 1.7%, making bank stocks more attractive compared to their dividend yield of around 4.5% [11]. - Improved risk assessment and decreased risk appetite also contribute to the rise in bank stock prices. The current economic policies and stabilization measures have led to a more favorable risk environment for banks, particularly concerning credit and liquidity risks [12].