国泰海通｜固收：“此”宽货币，已非“彼”宽货币——二季度货币政策执行报告解读

Core Viewpoint - The current financial support for the real economy from the central bank may not be weak, despite the unchanged stance on "loose monetary policy." The specific operational methods and transmission paths of "loose monetary policy" have undergone substantial changes compared to the past [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's focus has shifted towards a more structural and targeted approach to "cost reduction," moving away from traditional methods that rely on the interbank market and policy rate cuts [1]. - The recent emphasis on "preventing fund circularity" indicates that the central bank's current attention is not on further increasing nominal looseness but rather on optimizing structure and improving transmission efficiency to support the real economy [1][2]. - The second quarter monetary policy report continues to emphasize the "cost reduction" theme, suggesting that the central bank is satisfied with the current state of interbank market looseness and may not have strong motivation for further active easing [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Data Analysis - The short-term fluctuations in credit data for July can be viewed as a result of "anti-involution," with the focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of credit growth rather than merely increasing credit scale [2]. - The resilience of social financing data, supported by government bonds, contrasts with the relatively average credit data, indicating a nuanced financial environment [2]. - The fluctuations in M1 and M2, along with the movement of deposits, suggest that the outflow of bank deposits may continue, potentially weakening banks' pricing power in the bond market, especially for long-term bonds [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates - The introduction of fiscal interest subsidy policies represents a new approach to reducing financing costs for the real economy, balancing the need for economic stability and risk prevention [3]. - The recent fiscal interest subsidy can be seen as a form of targeted "fiscal interest rate cut," which aims to stabilize interest margins while reducing costs [3]. - The space for further policy rate cuts is narrowing, as the central bank's proactive easing response to growth pressures is alleviated by the implementation of fiscal interest subsidies [3].