研客专栏 | 尿素：对印度需求要有信仰

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for China's urea exports to India, driven by rising international urea prices and India's increasing import demand due to insufficient domestic production [6][12]. Group 1: Export Quantity Growth - Urea export quantity surged to 570,000 tons in July 2025, marking a significant increase and reaching a recent monthly high [7]. - Despite the growth in export numbers, China's direct urea exports to India remain restricted, limiting the overall impact on export demand [7]. Group 2: India's Rigid Urea Demand - Recent bidding prices in India have escalated from approximately $350 per ton at the end of 2024 to nearly $530 per ton, indicating a potential profit margin exceeding 100% for Chinese urea exports [8]. - India's urea production has declined from 2.497 million tons in March 2025 to around 2.2 million tons in April-May 2025, while import demand is expected to rise by 2-3 million tons throughout the year [12]. Group 3: Cost Support for Urea Production - The production profit for gas-based urea has turned negative, while coal-based urea production remains profitable [18]. - The potential for easing export restrictions could provide support for gas-based urea prices, given the current high export profits [18].