国泰海通｜策略：主动外资重燃信心，内资热钱延续流入

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased trading activity, with rising margin balances and active retail investor participation, while foreign capital has turned to inflows, indicating a notable increase in incremental funds entering the market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trading Activity - The trading heat in the market has marginally increased, with the average daily trading volume in the A-share market rising to 2.1 trillion yuan, and the turnover rate for the Shanghai Composite Index reaching the 93rd percentile [3]. - The number of daily limit-up stocks has increased to 74.4, with the maximum consecutive limit-up stocks being 5, while the sealing rate slightly decreased to 71.2% [3]. - The proportion of stocks that rose has decreased to 54.4%, and the median weekly return for all A-share stocks has dropped to 0.4% [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows - The net inflow of foreign capital was 2.7 billion USD as of August 13, with the northbound trading volume accounting for 11.0% of total trading [4]. - Public funds saw a decrease in new issuance to 5.947 billion yuan, while overall stock positions increased [4]. - The net buy amount for margin trading was 45.7 billion yuan, with the trading volume proportion rising to 10.6% [4]. Group 3: Industry Allocation - There is a clear divergence in fund allocation, with foreign capital significantly flowing out of the metals sector while financing mainly flows into electronics and machinery [5]. - The electronics sector saw a net inflow of 13.27 billion yuan, while the coal sector experienced a net outflow of 0.23 billion yuan [5]. - The ETF market showed a significant outflow of passive funds, with a net outflow of 27.93 billion yuan, while the food and beverage sector saw a net inflow of 0.59 billion yuan [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong and Global Fund Flows - Southbound capital inflows increased to 38.12 billion yuan, reaching the 92nd percentile since 2022, with foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong market amounting to 370 million USD [6]. - Developed markets saw a net inflow of 6.85 billion USD, with the US and UK being the primary beneficiaries, while emerging markets experienced net outflows [6]. - Active foreign capital has returned to buy Chinese concept stocks for the first time since October 2024 [6].