鲍威尔或暗示鹰派降息，美股今秋恐面临15%的回调

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. stock market, highlighting the potential risks associated with the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, particularly in light of recent economic data and market expectations for interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance and Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market is nearing historical highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and expectations of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts [5]. - Despite low initial jobless claims, the average monthly job growth over the past three months is the weakest since 2010, raising concerns about the labor market [6]. - The S&P 500's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio has risen to 25.5, the highest level since 2000, which may indicate overvaluation as the market enters a seasonally weak period [6]. Group 2: Risks and Expectations - Julian Emanuel from Evercore ISI warns that Powell's upcoming speech is a significant risk event, as the Fed's dual mandate is currently in disarray [5][6]. - There is a possibility that Powell may indirectly suggest a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, but emphasize that a 50 basis point cut is not an option, which could lead to a short-term market pullback of 7% to 15% [8]. - The anticipated "autumn decline" aligns with typical seasonal weaknesses in the stock market [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Emanuel suggests strategies such as buying put options on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series I, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, to hedge against potential market declines [8]. - He also recommends investing in attractive valuation sectors like healthcare while selling overvalued stocks such as Palantir, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Coinbase to raise capital [8].