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中金 | 美国住宅建筑商:把握利率预期变动下的投资机遇
中金点睛·2025-08-19 23:41

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. residential construction sector is experiencing short-term pressures alongside long-term potential, with challenges including inventory and price pressures, profit margin squeeze, and housing affordability issues. However, the underlying demand for housing remains strong, indicating potential for recovery if key variables shift positively [2][4][6]. Inventory and Price Pressure - New home inventory has been rising since 2023, leading developers to adopt price reduction strategies or sales incentives to accelerate sales, resulting in a 7% year-on-year decline in new home sales prices as of Q2 2025 [4][5]. - As of mid-2025, 38% of developers have lowered prices, while 62% have offered sales incentives, with discounts averaging 6%-8% off the sales price [4]. Profit Margin Pressure - U.S. residential builders are facing significant profit margin pressures due to high land, labor, and financing costs, alongside additional promotional costs. The average gross margin for major builders has declined by 3 percentage points year-on-year as of Q2 2025 [5][6]. Housing Affordability Constraints - The housing affordability index has dropped from 100.9 at the end of 2024 to 94.4 in mid-2025, indicating a decrease in buyer confidence and purchasing power in a high-interest rate environment [6][7]. Valuation Dynamics - The valuation of residential builders is expected to undergo a two-phase recovery: the first phase driven by changes in interest rate expectations leading to valuation multiples expansion, and the second phase driven by profit recovery, which is subject to various macroeconomic uncertainties [3][7]. - Current valuation multiples have decreased by 20%-30% from previous highs, providing a safety margin for investors [9]. Investment Opportunities - The initial phase of investment opportunities is linked to the anticipated changes in interest rates, with a focus on companies with low valuation levels but high return on equity (ROE). The recovery in profitability may vary based on product types and market coverage [9][10]. - Companies with a market share in entry-level products and those operating in high-immigration areas are expected to see order volume recovery first [9][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The average asset-liability ratio for U.S. residential builders has slightly increased in 2025, while gross margins have generally declined by 3 percentage points year-on-year as of Q2 2025 [43][44]. - Return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have shown a downward trend, averaging 20.5% and 11.5% respectively as of mid-2025, although still above the S&P 500 average [44][50].