CATL(SZ:300750) 创业邦·2025-08-20 00:08Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle (NEV) after-sales maintenance market in China, particularly as more vehicles exceed their warranty periods, leading to increased demand for maintenance services [5][11][20]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - As of the end of 2024, the number of NEVs in China is projected to reach 31.4 million, with a significant increase in sales from 55,000 units in 2017 to 1.074 million units in 2024 [5][6]. - The after-sales maintenance market for NEVs is expected to reach 300 billion yuan by 2025, with over 15% of this market attributed to the maintenance of the three core components (battery, motor, and electronic control) [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant supply-demand imbalance in the NEV maintenance market, with approximately 40,000 fuel vehicle maintenance enterprises compared to only 20,000 to 30,000 NEV maintenance enterprises [8]. - Only 2% of surveyed repair shops possess the capability to maintain the three core components, indicating a severe skills gap in the industry [8][11]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The cost of battery replacement for NEVs can exceed the vehicle's residual value, discouraging many owners from opting for battery replacement [11]. - The average cost of a battery pack can account for 30% to 70% of the vehicle's total cost, with an average ratio of 50.96% for NEV battery packs compared to the vehicle's overall value [11][12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Four main factions are competing for dominance in the NEV maintenance market: original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), battery manufacturers, independent third-party service providers, and insurance companies [13][14]. - OEMs like BYD and Tesla are establishing closed-loop systems for battery maintenance, while battery manufacturers like CATL are expanding their service networks [14][15]. - Independent third-party providers are emerging but face challenges related to qualifications and technical capabilities [15][16]. Group 5: Regulatory and Policy Environment - Recent regulatory efforts aim to lower maintenance costs and enhance the supply of NEV parts, encouraging collaboration between vehicle manufacturers and battery companies [20]. - The article highlights concerns regarding the monopolistic practices of OEMs that restrict consumer choice in repair options, which may violate anti-monopoly laws [20].