东方甄选股价坐上过山车，“产品驱动”面临挑战

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797.HK) experienced significant volatility, initially rising over 23% before closing down 20.89% due to rumors regarding CEO Zhou Chenggang's involvement in related party transactions and misleading information about commission rates [4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - The recent surge in Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock price was driven by optimistic market expectations regarding the company's development [4]. - The stock price increased by 502% from a low of 8.92 HKD on December 31, 2024, to 53.7 HKD [5]. - Short selling activity increased significantly, with the number of shares sold short rising to a six-month high before dropping from 5.82 million shares on August 7 to 1.37 million shares [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Dongfang Zhenxuan's revenue is estimated to be approximately 150 million USD, reflecting a nearly 30% year-over-year decline, although the decline is narrowing compared to the previous quarter [4]. - The company's operating profit under non-GAAP is projected to be around 79 million RMB, with an operating profit margin of approximately 7%, showing a quarter-over-quarter improvement of about 3% [4]. - The company's net revenue from continuing operations (self-operated products and live-streaming e-commerce) decreased by 9.3% year-over-year [7]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Challenges - Dongfang Zhenxuan is focusing on self-operated products and supply chain development, which aligns with new consumption trends and offers expansion opportunities [5]. - The company is attempting to shift from a host-driven model to a product-driven model, but faces challenges due to the departure of several key hosts [7]. - The company needs to establish an effective host team and brand operation model to improve profitability expectations [7]. - In the product-driven sector, Dongfang Zhenxuan faces challenges such as reliance on low-margin, high-loss agricultural products, the need to enhance its supply chain network, and the lack of a robust membership system compared to competitors like Sam's Club and Costco [7].