野村：惊人相似？“广场协议”后“美元下跌，股市火爆”，接着新美联储主席上任，然后是“黑色星期一”

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation and the events surrounding the Plaza Accord in 1985, suggesting that the conditions leading to a potential market crash, similar to "Black Monday" in 1987, are re-emerging today [3][5][11]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Plaza Accord initiated a period of significant dollar depreciation while the U.S. stock market reached new highs, a phenomenon that is being observed again in the current market [4][5]. - Following the Plaza Accord, the dollar depreciated by 36.5% against the yen and 30.8% to 36.6% against major European currencies within 17 months, yet the U.S. stock market continued to rise [4][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The apparent contradiction of a declining dollar alongside a booming stock market was largely supported by the market's belief that inflation was under control, bolstered by the reputation of then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker [5][9]. - Despite global economic uncertainties due to currency fluctuations, the Dow Jones Industrial Average consistently set historical highs during this period [8]. Group 3: Leadership and Policy Response - Volcker's credibility played a crucial role in maintaining market confidence; his decisive actions against inflation reassured investors [9][11]. - The transition to Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman in 1987 marked a critical turning point, as his inaction during a significant dollar drop led to renewed investor panic and ultimately contributed to the market crash [10][11]. Group 4: Implications for Current Market - The article posits that if Volcker had remained in charge, the "Black Monday" crash might have been averted due to his proactive stance on monetary policy [11]. - The current situation raises questions about the Fed's leadership and its potential impact on market stability, echoing the historical lessons from the 1980s [5][11].