美元被抛弃了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the US dollar index is not indicative of capital fleeing the US, but rather a trend of foreign investors buying US assets while simultaneously hedging against currency risk [5][8]. Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - The US dollar index (DXY) has dropped from around 110 at the beginning of the year to approximately 98 by August, representing a decline of about 11% over eight months [3]. - Despite the dollar's weakness, foreign investors have purchased over $545 billion in US assets since April, indicating a strong inflow of capital into US Treasury and equity markets [5][6]. Group 2: Hedging Strategies - Many foreign investors are using forward contracts, swaps, and options to hedge against currency risk while investing in US assets, particularly from regions with lower interest rates like the Eurozone, Japan, and Switzerland [5][7]. - The phenomenon can be likened to buying a house while simultaneously purchasing insurance to protect against potential declines in property value, illustrating that investors are not abandoning the US market but are managing risk more effectively [5]. Group 3: Credit Market Insights - As of mid-August, the credit spread for US investment-grade corporate bonds has compressed to around 73 basis points, the lowest level this century, suggesting a high level of investor confidence in US corporate debt [6]. - The stability of the 10-year US Treasury yield at approximately 4.3% further supports the notion that the bond market remains healthy, contradicting claims of capital exodus [6]. Group 4: Global Financial Reality - The rising interest rates in Europe and Japan have made the yield comparison after hedging increasingly important, leading to strong net buying of US assets despite selling pressure on the dollar [7]. - The current situation reflects a complex dynamic where the dollar weakens while US assets strengthen, indicating a sophisticated approach to risk management by investors [7][8]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The primary concern is not the current weakness of the dollar but the potential increase in hedging costs if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, which could lead to a reassessment of US asset holdings by foreign investors [8]. - Understanding the underlying logic of capital flows is more crucial than focusing solely on the fluctuations of the dollar index, as it reveals the true direction of investment [8].