国泰海通｜食饮：换个视角看消费

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the consumer sector, particularly in food and beverage, is facing challenges due to weak demand and policy factors, but there is potential for value reassessment in consumer stocks as market risk appetite improves [1][2]. Demand Side - Weakening consumer demand has been observed since Q2 2024, with significant declines in housing prices and negative CPI for food starting from May 2024. Retail sales growth has also slowed down, impacting the food and beverage sector, including liquor [3]. - The liquor industry has seen a decline in revenue growth, with A-share liquor revenue growth rates projected at +15% in Q1 2024, dropping to +1% by Q1 2025. Notably, Guizhou Moutai's growth is expected to fall to single digits, and Yanghe's revenue is forecasted to decline by 44% in Q2 2025 [3]. - Historical analysis suggests that the liquor sector may reach a bottom in financial reports between Q2 and Q3 of 2025, similar to the recovery observed in early 2014 after a significant profit drop [3]. Supply Side - Leading companies in the food and beverage sector exhibit stronger resilience amid negative population growth and competitive pressures. These companies possess robust brand strength, product quality, and distribution capabilities, positioning them favorably for future market balance [4]. - Traditional consumer sectors are undergoing adjustments, with a potential for value reassessment as market sentiment improves due to supportive policies. The government has emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate consumption, which may benefit traditional sectors like liquor [4].