国泰海通 · 晨报0821｜宏观

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure in July 2025, indicating a recovery in tax revenue and an increase in spending focused on public welfare and effective investment [5]. Group 1: Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue from January to July 2025 increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [3]. - Tax revenue has shown significant improvement, particularly in domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax, while non-tax revenue continues to decline [3]. - Local revenue growth outpaced central revenue, alleviating fiscal pressure at the grassroots level [3]. Group 2: Expenditure Analysis - National general public budget expenditure from January to July 2025 rose by 3.4% year-on-year, with July's expenditure growth rate also increasing [3]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints on revenue [3]. - Key areas of expenditure included health, social security, and employment, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [3]. Group 3: Government Fund and Debt - Government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, although July saw a high growth rate, which is attributed to a low base from the previous year [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance and utilization of bond funds, with local government special bonds and central financial institution injections contributing significantly [4]. Group 4: Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that July's fiscal data reflects positive changes, with improved tax revenue and accelerated local fiscal income helping to ease financial pressures [5]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [5]. - Despite these positive indicators, challenges remain in the economic landscape, particularly regarding real estate demand [5].