国泰海通｜轻工：全球长周期视角下的中国用浆成本趋势

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of global supply shocks and changes in supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets on domestic pulp prices in China, highlighting the long-term benefits for integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy capabilities [1]. Group 1: Domestic Pulp Price Dynamics - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic prices. The demand for commodity pulp accounts for less than 40% of total wood pulp demand, with softwood pulp making up 35% and hardwood pulp 55%, which has seen rapid growth in recent years [2]. - China has become the largest buyer in the global market, increasing its market share from 12% to 44% over the past 20 years, giving it significant bargaining power. The fluctuation in domestic wood pulp demand and the rising self-sufficiency in pulp production also impact global commodity pulp demand [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Price Influences - Since 2017, an average of 2 million tons of pulp capacity has been permanently shut down each year, with supply reductions expected to exceed 2 million tons annually post-2020 due to market factors, strikes, equipment failures, and natural disasters. The rising costs of wood pulp in Europe and America have widened the price gap between softwood and hardwood pulp [3]. - The structural changes in pulp usage are expected to lower long-term average costs, with hardwood pulp demand increasing by 10 percentage points to 74%, and the use of non-wood pulp materials like bamboo pulp rising to 12.1% in domestic life paper production [3]. Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Trends - The cost curve for pulp production is primarily determined by wood costs, with eucalyptus becoming more prevalent and driving down hardwood costs. However, domestic real estate demand is suppressing wood prices, which may lead to a tightening supply-demand balance and potential price increases [4]. - Logistics costs account for 10-20% of total costs, and leading pulp manufacturers can optimize costs through strategic location choices. Energy costs represent 15-20%, with top manufacturers able to sell surplus electricity [4].