惊人相似！40年前历史正重现，1987美国股灾“黑色星期一”将卷土重来？

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation and historical events from 40 years ago, particularly focusing on the potential for a repeat of the "Black Monday" stock market crash due to factors such as a weakening dollar and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [2][8]. Group 1: Economic Context - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, reaching a three-year low against major currencies, coinciding with Trump's return to the White House [2]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached new historical highs, driven by expectations of monetary easing and improved trade conditions [4]. Group 2: Historical Comparison - The article references the "Plaza Accord" of 1985, which led to a significant depreciation of the dollar while the U.S. stock market experienced substantial gains, with the dollar falling 36.5% against the yen and 30.8% to 36.6% against other major currencies over 17 months [5][10]. - Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. import prices did not rise significantly due to exporters' strategies to maintain market share, coupled with falling international oil prices that helped control inflation [11][12]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Leadership - Market confidence during the 1985-1987 period was largely attributed to then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker's reputation for controlling inflation, which reassured investors [6][13]. - The transition to Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman in 1987 led to a lack of decisive action when the dollar fell below critical levels, contributing to market instability and the eventual crash [16][17]. Group 4: Implications for Current Markets - The article suggests that if Volcker had remained in charge, the "Black Monday" crash might have been avoided due to his proactive approach to monetary policy [18]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of the Fed Chairman's credibility and the market's trust in the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation, indicating that even minor policy missteps can lead to significant market turmoil [18].