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研客专栏 | 鸡蛋:崩盘的鸡蛋,何时能修复?
对冲研投·2025-08-20 12:49

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-August, although spot prices have stabilized and rebounded, the market remains pessimistic about the peak season spot prices, leading to a significant decline in the 2509 contract due to the timing of egg deliveries post National Day [5][6]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The price gap between large and small eggs has reached a historical high, indicating that new production capacity exceeds the number of old hens being culled [5][6]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas is currently 3.2 yuan/kg, significantly lower than the same period last year [6][7]. - As of August 19, the inventory in the production link was 0.74 days, while the circulation inventory was 1.1 days, reflecting a rebound in inventory levels despite a decrease in supply [6]. Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - The number of laying hens increased by 2% month-on-month to approximately 1.292 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7% [15]. - The sales of chick orders have decreased, indicating a decline in replenishment sentiment, with chick prices dropping to 3.15 yuan each as of August 20 [15][16]. - The high level of chick replenishment from March to May suggests that the supply of laying hens will remain high in the fourth quarter, despite a projected decline in new production capacity [16]. Group 3: Profitability and Culling Trends - As of August 6, the profit from egg production was -7 yuan per hen, indicating a slight loss, with feed prices remaining stable [24]. - The number of culled hens increased by 5.2% week-on-week, with an average culling age of 502 days, reflecting a slight easing of reluctance to cull due to lower-than-expected spot prices [24][30]. - The current culling pace may not sufficiently alleviate the oversupply pressure expected in the fourth quarter, unless there is an unexpected increase in culling post-Mid-Autumn Festival [30]. Group 4: Futures Market Outlook - The 2509 contract is expected to have limited upside as it approaches the delivery month, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic about peak season demand [30]. - The market is showing a near-weak and far-strong pattern, with expectations of a rebound in the far months, but current supply-demand factors do not support a significant market turnaround [30].