【广发宏观王丹】8月EPMI：出口韧性、生产约束、价格偏强

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) for August shows a slight month-on-month increase of 1.0 points, indicating a stabilization in economic activity despite remaining at a historically low level of 47.8, the lowest for August since 2014 [1][6][8]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The EPMI increased by 1.0 points in August, aligning closely with the seasonal average increase of 1.1 points [7]. - The absolute index value of 47.8 is 1.0 points lower than the same month last year, marking the lowest level recorded for August since data collection began in 2014 [8][9]. Demand and Production Indicators - Demand indicators showed slight improvement, with product orders and export orders rising by 2.5 and 2.8 points respectively, while production indicators fell by 0.3 points [10]. - The production-to-order ratio turned negative at -0.6, indicating a better alignment between supply and demand [10]. - Supply contraction led to price increases, with purchase prices rising by 5.3 points and sales prices by 1.5 points [12]. - The difficulty of obtaining loans in emerging industries increased by 2.6 points, reflecting a tightening financing environment [12]. Sector Performance - The sectors of new energy and energy conservation are leading in terms of absolute economic performance, with significant price increases in the new energy vehicle, new energy, and biological industries [14]. - In August, new energy and energy conservation were the only two sectors in the expansion zone, likely influenced by accelerated fiscal funding and seasonal factors [14]. - Price increases in the new energy vehicle sector were notable, with sales prices rising by 4.6 points, indicating effective price management in larger enterprises [14][17]. High-Frequency Data Insights - High-frequency data from early to mid-August showed resilience in exports, production constraints, and strong pricing [18]. - Traditional industries experienced a decline in operating rates due to "anti-involution" effects, with specific declines noted in the automotive tire sector [18]. - Overall, manufacturing PMI is expected to show little change compared to July [18].