下半年“财政退坡”值得担心吗？——7月财政数据点评

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the potential concerns regarding "fiscal retreat" in the second half of the year, highlighting the implications for economic performance and the need for extraordinary policy measures to counteract any downturn [3][4][5]. - "Fiscal retreat" refers to a significant drop in fiscal expenditure growth in the latter half of the year compared to the first half, particularly in years where the fiscal budget is not adjusted post-implementation [3][12]. - There is a possibility of a fiscal retreat this year, with projections indicating a potential decline in fiscal expenditure growth to between -0.4% and 2.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2022 [4][13]. Group 2 - Despite the potential for fiscal retreat, the actual risk of it negatively impacting the economy may be limited, as adjusted fiscal expenditure growth is estimated to remain robust, between 4.1% and 6.7% [5][15]. - The article emphasizes that even without extraordinary policy measures, the fiscal support for the economy in the second half may not be less than that in the first half, aligning with economic growth targets of approximately 4.7% to 4.8% [5][15]. - The analysis includes a breakdown of fiscal expenditure adjustments, excluding non-economic driving components and incorporating new policy financial tools to enhance fiscal capacity [16][19]. Group 3 - The July fiscal data indicates a significant rebound in public fiscal revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [20][21]. - Tax revenue has shown consistent positive growth for four consecutive months, with notable increases in sectors such as equipment manufacturing, where tax revenue grew by over 33% [20][21]. - On the expenditure side, public fiscal spending increased by 3% in July, ending a two-month decline, with a notable focus on social welfare and infrastructure spending [33][34]. Group 4 - The article notes a narrowing of land sales revenue growth, which has implications for broader fiscal revenue, while special bonds and new special debts have supported high growth in fiscal expenditure [42][43]. - Government fund income growth has slowed to 8.9% in July, primarily due to reduced land sales revenue growth of 7.2% [42][43]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring future policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which could impact fiscal revenue positively [42][43].