麦肯锡·2025-08-21 00:45Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a complex economic landscape in China for the first half of 2025, where consumer confidence remains low despite signs of recovery in certain retail sectors and a notable increase in international travel and automotive exports [2][6][10]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Savings - Consumer confidence in China is still weak, with the consumer confidence index hovering at historical lows, primarily due to concerns over employment and the real estate market [2]. - National household savings reached RMB 163 trillion in the first half of 2025, with a savings rate above 30% since 2020. The net increase in household savings was RMB 17.94 trillion, significantly higher than previous years [3]. Group 2: Retail Sector Resilience - Despite challenges in categories like apparel and beauty, retail sales showed a 5.0% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, with food sales leading at a 12.3% increase, driven by new retail channels and health-conscious consumption [4]. - The automotive sector also performed well, with overall sales increasing by 11.2%, bolstered by a 37.4% rise in new energy vehicle sales [4]. Group 3: Travel and Tourism Recovery - The tourism industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with international passenger traffic increasing by 9% and 13% in the first two quarters of 2025 compared to 2019 [6]. - Domestic travel also surged, with 329 million trips taken in the first half of 2025, an 18% increase from 2019 [6]. Group 4: Automotive Export Growth - China became the world's largest automobile exporter in 2023, with exports nearing 5.5 million units in 2024, an eightfold increase from 2019 [10]. - The average export price of vehicles rose from RMB 47,000 to RMB 111,000, indicating a significant increase in the "value" of exports [10]. Group 5: Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market in China showed signs of recovery in 2025, with Hong Kong's financing activities rebounding to HKD 107.1 billion in the first half, compared to HKD 13 billion in the same period last year [19]. - Consumer-focused companies are attracting significant investment, with notable IPOs in the tea beverage sector [19]. Group 6: Cultural Exports and Global Reach - Chinese cultural exports, particularly in gaming and trendy toys, are gaining traction globally, with the game "Black Myth: Wukong" achieving record sales and significant international player engagement [24]. - The toy brand Pop Mart has also seen substantial growth in overseas markets, with international sales contributing 39% of total revenue in 2024 [24]. Group 7: Foreign Brands in China - Despite a moderate economic growth rate, foreign brands are expanding in China, particularly in the outdoor apparel sector, which has seen a doubling of sales over the past five years [29][31]. - This resurgence of foreign brands reflects the ongoing appeal of international products in the Chinese market and the opportunities presented by the consumption upgrade trend [31].