商用车电动化率近30%：重卡26% 轻卡29% 三年后会到50%吗？| 头条

Core Viewpoint - The electrification penetration rate of commercial vehicles in China is rapidly increasing, with significant growth observed in various segments, indicating a strong trend towards electric commercial vehicles [1][3][6]. Group 1: Overall Electrification Trends - The overall electrification penetration rate for commercial vehicles reached nearly 29% in June and July, with a cumulative rate of 24.35% from January to July, up 7.7 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. - Cumulative sales of new energy commercial vehicles from January to July reached 429,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 56%, while the overall commercial vehicle sales growth was only 6.6% [1]. Group 2: Heavy-duty Trucks - The electrification penetration rate for heavy-duty trucks exceeded 25% for two consecutive months, reaching 25.89% in July, with cumulative sales of nearly 96,000 units from January to July, a 179% year-on-year increase [3]. - The cumulative penetration rate for heavy-duty trucks is close to 23%, up 13 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Group 3: Light-duty Trucks - The electrification penetration rate for light-duty trucks (3.5-6T) surpassed 27% for two consecutive months, with sales reaching 88,000 units from January to July, a 95% year-on-year increase [6]. - The cumulative penetration rate for light-duty trucks increased to 21.95%, up 8.5 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Group 4: Pickup Trucks - The electrification rate for pickup trucks exceeded 10% in July, marking a significant increase from below 5% in previous years [9]. - Cumulative sales of pickup trucks reached 12,400 units from January to July, a 115% year-on-year increase, with a cumulative penetration rate of 7.8% [9]. Group 5: Light Buses - The electrification penetration rate for light buses is the highest among all commercial vehicle segments, reaching 59.49% from January to July, with cumulative sales of 246,000 units, a 3% year-on-year increase [12]. Group 6: Future Projections - The annual penetration rate for commercial vehicles is expected to reach 26-28% by 2025, with total sales projected to hit a record 800,000 units, a nearly 40% year-on-year increase [15]. - The heavy-duty and light-duty truck segments are expected to see total sales of 190,000 and 180,000 units, respectively, with penetration rates of around 25% and 28% [15]. - The market may face challenges in 2026 due to potential market saturation and changes in tax policies, but the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a penetration rate exceeding 50% by 2030 [17].