美国M2重回峰值水平，通胀第二波已在路上？

Group 1 - The core concern is the resurgence of inflation risks in the U.S. economy, driven by a return to peak levels of M2 money supply and rising inflation indicators [1][9][11] - Economists warn that further monetary easing could replicate the inflationary cycles of the 1970s, leading to severe economic consequences [2][5][16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has reached a high of 3.3%, indicating significant wholesale cost pressures that may translate to consumer prices [3][15] Group 2 - The M2 money supply, which surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, has returned to historical peak levels, with an annual growth rate approaching 5%, a level historically associated with inflation risks [7][9] - Recent price data supports inflation concerns, with core PPI rising 33.3% since January 2017, reflecting ongoing upward pressure on consumer goods and services [13][15] - The lessons from the 1970s highlight the dangers of premature monetary policy easing, which could lead to repeated inflationary waves and economic turmoil [16][18] Group 3 - The current inflation backdrop has intensified the policy divergence between the White House and the Federal Reserve, with political pressures advocating for lower interest rates [19][20] - The potential for renewed inflation could undermine the credibility of the current administration, linking it to past economic policies [20] - Observers view the Fed Chair Powell's resistance to rate cuts as a responsible stance amid rising inflation concerns, with fears that a successor may prioritize rate reductions [20]