美联储7月会议纪要：多数人认为通胀比就业风险高，担心美债市场脆弱，关注稳定币影响

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a divergence among policymakers regarding inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs, with a prevailing concern that inflation risks outweigh employment risks [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Some participants expect the U.S. economic activity to remain robust, while others predict a continuation of low growth in the second half of the year [3]. - There is a consensus among Fed officials to monitor vulnerabilities in financial markets, particularly concerning the U.S. Treasury market and the implications of recent stablecoin legislation [3][18]. Inflation Risks - A majority of participants believe that inflation risks are greater than employment risks, while a couple of participants view employment risks as more pronounced [4][5]. - Concerns regarding tariffs include their uncertain impact on inflation and the potential for inflation expectations to become unstable [5][6]. Tariff Impact - Many participants noted that the full effects of tariff increases may take time to manifest in consumer prices [9][11]. - Some participants indicated that current demand conditions limit the ability of businesses to pass on tariff costs to prices [12]. - There is a belief that the increase in tariffs may lead to a one-time price increase, but factors like supply chain disruptions could cause persistent inflation [13][14]. Monetary Policy Considerations - Almost all participants agree that the current monetary policy is capable of responding to potential economic developments, with the understanding that the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be fully observed [15][17]. - Some participants emphasized that the current federal funds rate target range may not be significantly above neutral levels, suggesting a balanced approach to monetary policy [17]. Financial Stability Concerns - Participants expressed concerns about vulnerabilities in the financial system, particularly regarding high asset valuations and the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market [18]. - The discussion on stablecoins highlighted their potential to enhance payment system efficiency and increase demand for supporting assets, including U.S. Treasuries [19].