杰克逊霍尔会议最全指引：鲍威尔讲话前你必须知道的一切

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is highly anticipated, with market participants closely watching for indications of a potential rate cut in September, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut expected [1]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Conference Insights - The Jackson Hole conference has historically served as a significant platform for the Federal Reserve to signal policy changes, with Powell's previous speeches guiding market expectations for rate cuts [3]. - The theme for this year's conference is "Transforming Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macro Policy," indicating a shift in focus back to employment as inflation subsides [4]. - The conference may also address the results of the Federal Reserve's framework review, with expectations that Powell might partially reverse the Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) policy introduced in 2020, aiming to rebalance the Fed's dual mandate of employment and inflation [4][8]. Group 2: Labor Market Focus - Powell's upcoming speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Review" will likely address the recent signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, particularly in light of the July employment report [5][6]. - The July non-farm payroll data showed significant downward revisions, with a net adjustment of -258,000 jobs over the previous two months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [6]. - Goldman Sachs economists predict that Powell may modify his previous statements to emphasize the risks associated with the labor market's downturn, potentially signaling support for a rate cut if necessary [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Divergence - There is a notable divergence among Wall Street firms regarding the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting three 25 basis point cuts this year, while Barclays suggests that the next cut may not occur until December [10][11]. - Morgan Stanley adopts a cautious stance, indicating that the Fed's decision in September will depend on upcoming employment and CPI data, suggesting that the Jackson Hole meeting may not have a substantial impact [11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Trading Strategies - Historically, the bond market has reacted significantly to the Jackson Hole conference, with notable fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields during the event [12]. - Market participants are currently reducing short positions in the dollar and purchasing "cheap" call options to hedge against potential risks from the conference [15][16].