行业透视 | 同比增长4.9倍的城中村改造专项债，正在主投这些城市

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of special bonds for urban village renovation has significantly increased, contributing to a 33% overall growth in affordable housing projects, indicating a strong governmental push towards urban development and housing security [1][2][5]. Group 1: Special Bond Issuance Growth - Since 2025, the issuance of real estate-related special bonds has exceeded 500 billion, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 170% [2]. - The issuance of special bonds for urban village renovation has surged by 487% year-on-year, while affordable housing bonds have increased by 93%, driving a 33% growth in the overall category of affordable housing special bonds [2][6]. - In the first seven months of 2025, urban village renovation financing reached 573 billion, a 487% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Urban Development Focus - The central urban work conference in 2025 emphasized high-quality urban development, aligning with new urbanization efforts that prioritize urban village renovation and affordable housing construction [6][9]. - The financing for urban village renovation and affordable housing projects has increased by 672 billion in the first seven months of 2025, potentially leading to an estimated 800 billion increase in real estate sales revenue [6]. Group 3: City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities have seen the most significant growth in urban village renovation special bonds, with a 43.4-fold increase in issuance, reaching 329 billion in the first seven months of 2025 [11]. - Third-tier cities also experienced substantial growth, with a 198% increase in financing for urban village projects, indicating ongoing urbanization efforts [11][12]. - Second-tier cities showed a more modest growth of 20% compared to the entire year of 2024, reflecting a saturation of development opportunities [12]. Group 4: Top Cities for Urban Village Renovation - Beijing leads the financing for urban village renovation, with 309 billion raised, accounting for over 54% of the national total [13][14]. - Other cities like Chongqing and Chengdu follow, with significant portions of their financing directed towards suburban areas rather than central urban zones [15]. Group 5: Special Bond Allocation and Market Stability - The 2025 special bonds have allocated 1.2% to affordable housing and 2.8% to urban village renovation, both significantly higher than in 2024, contributing to market stabilization [16][17]. - The total financing for land reserve, urban village renovation, and affordable housing is expected to increase by 680 billion compared to 2024, potentially generating over 800 billion in real estate sales and land transfer revenue [17].