杰克逊霍尔会议最全指引：鲍威尔讲话前你必须知道的一切26/64

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on Powell's perspective regarding the July non-farm employment data and whether it opens the door for a rate cut in September, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut anticipated by traders [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is highly anticipated, as it may signal the potential for a September rate cut [2][5]. - The theme of this year's conference is "Transforming Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," indicating a shift in focus back to employment after inflation has receded [4]. - The conference is expected to address the results of the Federal Reserve's framework review, with expectations that Powell may partially reverse the Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) policy introduced in 2020 [4][9]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell has previously warned that the potential for job growth in the U.S. labor market is declining due to factors like slowed immigration and an aging population, with July's non-farm data showing significant downward revisions [7]. - The July non-farm employment report indicated a substantial miss against expectations, with a net revision of -258,000 jobs over the previous two months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that Powell may modify his previous statements to emphasize the risks to the dual mandate of employment and inflation, potentially signaling support for a rate cut [7][12]. - There is a significant divergence among Wall Street firms regarding the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs forecasting three 25 basis point cuts this year, while Barclays suggests the next cut may not occur until December [11][12]. - Historical data shows that bond markets typically react significantly to the Jackson Hole conference, with notable fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields [13].