历史上“反内卷”行情期间私募产品表现如何？

Core Viewpoint - Since 2022, China has faced significant deflationary pressure, with the GDP deflator index showing negative year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters, and the PPI recording negative year-on-year growth for 33 months, leading to a decline in corporate revenue and profit margins [2] Group 1: Historical Context of Supply-Side Reforms - In 2010, following the global financial crisis, the Chinese government implemented measures to stimulate economic growth, leading to overcapacity in high-energy consumption sectors. The introduction of power rationing resulted in a significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by approximately 39% from July to November 2010 [3] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 aimed to address overcapacity in industries such as steel and coal, with a focus on reducing inventory and leveraging economic growth. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by about 36% from the first trading day after the 2016 Spring Festival to the end of 2017 [7][8] Group 2: Performance of Private Equity Strategies - During the observation period from July 2, 2010, to November 5, 2010, subjective long-only strategies achieved an average return of 21.26%, with a maximum drawdown of 3.39% [6] - In the 2016-2017 supply-side reform period, quantitative CTA strategies outperformed with an average return of 24.35%, while subjective long strategies maintained a dominant presence in the market, with about 70% of these strategies yielding positive returns [8] Group 3: Recent Trends and Government Initiatives - The "dual carbon" goals introduced in 2021 have led to a significant market response, with the CSI 500 index rising by approximately 15.04% during the observation period from March 15, 2021, to October 26, 2021. The average return for private equity strategies during this period was 16.90% [9][12] - The current "anti-involution" trend is still in its early stages, with the government emphasizing self-regulation within industries to avoid excessive competition. The lack of strong administrative measures suggests a focus on long-term industry optimization rather than immediate intervention [15]