财政“投资于人”特征初现——7月财政数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first seven months of 2025, highlighting a slight increase in revenue but a notable decrease in expenditure growth, particularly in government debt support, while spending on people's livelihoods and service sectors is accelerating [2][3][69]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - In July 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to June, while broad fiscal expenditure rose by 12.1%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from June [3][9][70]. - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first seven months was 56.3%, in line with the average of the past five years, while the expenditure completion rate was 51%, slightly below the average of 51.7% [3][9][70]. Group 2: Changes in Fiscal Support and Spending - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure growth may be partly due to the end of large-scale government debt financing support, with a fiscal revenue deficit of 5.6 trillion yuan in July, only increasing by 0.4 trillion yuan from June [3][14][70]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the 1,880 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment updates supported by long-term special bonds had been fully allocated, indicating a reduction in government debt support for fiscal expenditure [3][14][70]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Spending Trends - Despite the overall decline in broad fiscal expenditure growth, spending related to people's livelihoods and service sectors has accelerated, with health and social security employment expenditures growing by 14.2% and 13.1% respectively, significantly higher than in June [4][20][71]. - Expenditures in cultural tourism, media, and education also saw increases, with growth rates of 7% and 4.6%, respectively, both improving compared to June [4][20][71]. - The structure of fiscal expenditure is expected to become more differentiated, particularly with the implementation of policies such as childcare subsidies and dual interest subsidies [4][26][71].