高盛观点 | 全球Robotaxi市场有望增长

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs research predicts an increase in the number of autonomous taxis (Robotaxis) in the U.S. as leading operators reduce costs and scale operations, with an upward revision of the potential market size for autonomous taxis in China [1] U.S. Market Overview - Currently, over 1,500 autonomous taxis are operating commercially in five U.S. cities, expected to grow to approximately 35,000 by 2030, generating annual revenues of $7 billion and capturing about 8% of the shared mobility market, up from less than 1% [2] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the autonomous taxi market from 2025 to 2030 is projected to be around 90%, with gross margins for vertically integrated operators potentially reaching 40-50% in the next three to five years, leading to total gross profits of about $3.5 billion by 2030 [2] China Market Potential - In China, technology readiness is acknowledged, with an expectation of 535,000 autonomous taxis operating in over 10 cities by 2030, driven by consumer acceptance, fleet maturity, and supportive government and insurance sectors [3] - The potential market size in China is projected to reach $61 billion by 2035, with profitability expected in first-tier cities by early 2026 [3] Factors Influencing Predictions - The speed at which autonomous vehicle suppliers can scale operations and the level of competition will determine whether Goldman Sachs' predictions are overly optimistic or conservative [4] - Early signs of successful scaling in autonomous vehicles are emerging, with consumer preferences shifting towards autonomous options in specific shared mobility markets [4] Cost Dynamics - As the scale of autonomous vehicles increases, costs are decreasing, with significant reductions in hardware requirements and driving costs per mile, projected to drop from approximately $0.35 in 2025 to $0.15 by 2040 [5] - Insurance costs are also expected to decline from $0.50 per mile to about $0.23 during the same period, while the number of vehicles managed by a remote operator is anticipated to increase significantly [5] Consumer Behavior - Despite the rise of autonomous taxis, ownership of personal vehicles may not decline sharply, as the cost of operating a private car remains competitive compared to shared mobility options [6] - The report suggests that in the next 3-5 years, deliveries of autonomous vehicles in the U.S. will primarily focus on commercial applications [6] Trucking Sector Insights - The development of autonomous trucks is expected to be slower compared to the shared mobility market, with only a few deployments currently in the U.S. and an estimated 25,000 autonomous trucks by 2030, still representing less than 1% of commercial truck fleets [7]