内容摘要 亚太地区并购活动驱动因素： 全球并购活动驱动因素： 2026年全球并购格局将以战略重塑与规模化布局为核心特征。庞大的公开市场资金与私募资本、人工智能 （AI）对宏观环境的深刻影响，以及更具建设性的监管和经济环境，共同推动新一轮并购热潮的到来。 驱动2026年并购活动的主要趋势 亚太地区 公司治理改革 科技创新热潮兴起 财务投资机构寻求资本部署机遇 创新超级周期驱动战略性增长 私募市场成为并购交易核心枢纽 复杂交易亟需灵活资本解决方案 主动应对激进投资者行动 公司治理改革 1 一轮公司治理改革浪潮提升了企业透明度与问责机制，有助企业明确估值，为本地与国际买 方、卖方及投资者创造了更具吸引力的机遇。 科技创新热潮兴起 2 科技创新与战略扩张的浪潮，为亚太关键行业的整合与转型营造了更具活力的环境，推动更多 超大型交易出现。 财务投资机构寻求资本部署机遇 私募股权投资公司对高价值增长机遇的日益关注，以及对资本部署需求的增加，促使亚太地区 的财务投资机构并购活动更为活跃。 全球 创新超级周期驱动战略性增长 AI因素：自建、收购、转型 不同于以往科技驱动的变革，AI正同步颠覆所有行业，从而拓宽了跨行业战略性并购 ...

高盛研究部表示，尽管 2026 年的股票涨幅可能不如 2025 年，但 全球牛市有望在盈利和经济增长的加持下延续 。 2026 年全球经济有望在所有地区持续 扩张，并且预计美联储将提供进一步的适度宽松。 高盛研究部首席全球股票策略师 彼得 · 奥本海默（ Peter Oppenheimer ） 在题为《 2026 年全球股票策略展望：科技强音 —— 牛市拓宽》的报告中写 道： " 鉴于这种宏观背景，即使估值较高， 如果没有经济衰退，股市出现大幅调整或进入熊市的可能性都不大 。 " | 指数 | 当前 | 目标价 | 每股收益增长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500 | 6940 | 7,600 | 12% | | STOXX 600 | 614 | 625 | 5% | | 东证指数 (TOPIX) | 3659 | 3,600 | 12% | | MSCI 亚太 (除日本) 759 | | 825 | 19% | 尽管 2025 年股市表现强劲，跑赢大宗商品和债券，但涨幅并非一帆风顺。股市在年初表现不佳，标普 500 指数在 2 月中旬至 4 月期间经历了近 20% 的调 ...

Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs projects China's real GDP growth to reach 4.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 4.5% [1] - Structural challenges such as weak consumer spending and a sluggish labor market persist, although the drag from the declining real estate market is expected to lessen [1] - The firm anticipates that increased exports and a reduction in the negative impact of the real estate sector will lead to a faster-than-expected economic growth this year [1] Trade and Inflation - The forecast for Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation is -0.7%, slightly better than the consensus expectation of -1.0% [2] - The PPI has been in deflation for over three years, prompting the government to implement "anti-involution" policies to curb price competition among manufacturers [2] - Goldman Sachs expects the current account surplus to rise from 3.6% of GDP in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, contrary to the consensus prediction of a decline to 2.5% [2] Export Dynamics - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to three factors: rapid expansion of exports to emerging markets, limited ability of other countries to impose trade barriers against China in key mineral sectors, and greater growth potential in high-tech exports [5] - The firm predicts that export prices, measured in USD, will turn positive in 2026, increasing from -2.7% last year to 0.7% [6] Consumer and Labor Market - The labor market in China has been weak, with employment indices at their lowest levels in a decade, and nominal wage growth expected to slow to 3.8% year-on-year by Q3 2025 [7] - Targeted government policies are anticipated in 2026 to alleviate labor market pressures and support income growth, including subsidies for labor-intensive services and increased minimum wages [7] - Despite a forecasted slowdown in household consumption growth, government consumption is expected to accelerate, balancing the overall contribution of consumption to GDP growth [7] Real Estate Market - The Chinese real estate sector is in its fifth year of decline, with most activity indicators down by 50%-80% from peak levels in 2020-2021 [8] - There are no signs of stabilization in the real estate market, with high housing inventory and severe financing conditions for major developers [11] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the drag from the real estate sector on GDP growth will decrease by 0.5 percentage points annually, although it will still negatively impact growth in the coming years [11] Risks to Growth Outlook - The growth forecast faces slight downward risks due to weaker-than-expected momentum and a lack of urgency for significant policy easing from decision-makers [12] - Potential risks include renewed tensions in US-China relations, increased trade barriers from major trading partners, and intensified financial pressures on local governments and banks [12]

Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a robust global economic growth of 2.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 2.6% [1][2] - The US economy is expected to grow by 2.8%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1][4] - China's economy is projected to grow by 4.8%, exceeding the market forecast of 4.5%, with strong exports offsetting domestic demand weakness [1][2] - The Eurozone is anticipated to grow by 1.3%, above the consensus of 1.1%, supported by fiscal stimulus in Germany and strong growth in Spain [1][2][7] US Economic Forecast - The US economy is expected to benefit from tax cuts, a loose financial environment, and reduced tariff drag, leading to a significant outperformance compared to market consensus [4] - Consumers are projected to receive approximately $100 billion in additional tax refunds in the first half of the year, accounting for 0.4% of annual disposable income [4] - Despite global GDP growth, the labor market remains weak, with employment growth rates in developed economies below pre-pandemic levels [6] Eurozone Economic Forecast - The Eurozone faces structural weaknesses exacerbated by competition from China, including population decline and high energy costs, yet is expected to grow at a "considerable" rate of 1.3% in 2026 [7] - Germany's GDP growth is expected to benefit from significant federal government spending increases, while Southern Europe, particularly Spain, is projected to maintain robust growth [7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the US is expected to moderate, with core PCE inflation currently at 2.3%, and factors such as falling oil prices and increased productivity contributing to a downward trend [8] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range of 3-3.25% in 2026, as inflation concerns are expected to be resolved [10] - The Bank of England is also expected to implement quarterly rate cuts, reaching 3% by the third quarter of 2026 [10] Market Implications - The basic predictions from Goldman Sachs are favorable for stocks and many emerging market assets, with the market already pricing in improved US economic growth and declining inflation [10] - However, concerns about a weak labor market potentially leading to recession fears and skepticism regarding the value of AI-related revenues may increase market volatility [10]

每年，我们的暑期实习生都会为高盛带来全新视角。适逢高盛暑期实习生调查满十周年，今年的调查主题除了以往涵盖的人生规划、投资、人工智能等，更增加 了与前几年调查结果的对比。今年共有2100多名实习生参与调查。 47% 地缘关系 27% 科技与创新 * 他们会通过以下方式打发时间: 42% 18% a 听音乐 首两项选择 金钱面面观 实习生在阅读或搜 索新闻时,会查阅 多个来源以比较不 同观点。 76% 商业和金融 受访者可选择最多两项 开始第一份全职工作后,我们 的实习生预计将主要按以下优 先顺序分配可支配资金: 1 投资 储蓄 3 旅行和3 44 关于投资 63% 已投资 37% 完全未投资 自2021年以来，他们的 前两大投资保持不变 53% on न्म 33% 订阅、购物 4 和娱乐 胶宗 EIF 聚焦人工智能 97% 的实习生表示他们 在个人生活中使用 人工智能工具。 93% 86% 与去年入职的实习生大致相同，我们的实习生在个人生活中，最常使用 人工智能工具以: | 31% | 10% D | 16% | 14% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 辅助写作 | 查找事实或 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' research team emphasizes that interpreting and following China's Five-Year Plan could yield excess returns, introducing the "15th Five-Year Plan" investment portfolio [1][3]. Group 1: Five-Year Plan Goals - Since 2001, China has achieved nearly 90% of its quantitative growth and development targets across five Five-Year Plans [2]. - The details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) will be officially announced in March next year, focusing on high-quality, safe, and balanced growth, technology/innovation, and improving people's quality of life [2]. Group 2: Excess Returns from Policy Adherence - Goldman Sachs' Asia macro team has developed tools to analyze China's policy environment, which is more nuanced than other major markets due to data availability and quality [3]. - Historical data shows that the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index have achieved an annualized total return of 8-10%, slightly below the nominal GDP growth rate of 11% [3]. - By utilizing text analysis based on large language models (LLM), the research indicates that investors could achieve an annualized excess return of 13% by adjusting their portfolios according to overall policy trends [3]. Group 3: Redefining Excess Return Investment Portfolio - The Chinese stock market is extensive and liquid, with over 6,800 listed companies and a total market capitalization of $19 trillion [5]. - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team has constructed the "15th Five-Year Plan" investment portfolio based on 35 GICS sectors, focusing on industries expected to benefit from policy support and specifically mentioned in the plan [5]. - These sectors represent a total market capitalization of $13 trillion, accounting for 66% of the entire Chinese stock market, and include themes such as private enterprise return, overseas expansion, AI, anti-involution, and shareholder returns [5]. Group 4: Launch of the "15th Five-Year Plan" Investment Portfolio - Goldman Sachs has selected 50 mid-cap stocks (30 A-shares and 20 overseas-listed Chinese stocks) based on growth, valuation, and quality criteria [8]. - This selected portfolio has achieved a total return of 68% over the past year, compared to 35% for the MSCI China Index, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 26 times and a dynamic PEG of 1.0 [8]. - Market consensus predicts that the portfolio will have an average annual compound growth rate of 30% in earnings per share over the next two years [8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its GDP growth forecasts for China, reflecting an optimistic outlook based on government spending and export growth, with a focus on achieving the economic goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][8]. Economic Growth Forecasts - The actual GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 4.9% to 5.0%, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased from 4.3% and 4.0% to 4.8% and 4.7% respectively, primarily due to an upward revision in export growth predictions [5][8]. - The expectation is that China's exports will grow by 5-6% annually over the next few years, outpacing global trade growth and contributing to overall economic expansion [8]. Export Growth Insights - Despite challenges such as increased tariffs from the U.S., China's actual exports are projected to achieve an annual growth rate of approximately 8%, driven by the competitiveness of Chinese products across various sectors [7][8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors, which is expected to support continued rapid growth in exports and an increase in global market share [7]. Real Estate Market Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on GDP growth is expected to gradually diminish, with the drag on GDP growth estimated at around 2 percentage points annually for 2024 and 2025, potentially decreasing by about 0.5 percentage points each year thereafter [9]. - Recent data indicates a significant decline in new construction starts, with a 20% month-on-month drop in October, and a 30% decrease in second-hand housing prices since their peak in 2021 [9][10]. Policy Measures for Real Estate Stabilization - Potential policy measures to stabilize the real estate market include removing purchase restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and providing subsidies for first-time homebuyers [9][11]. - Strategies to reduce excess inventory and support distressed borrowers are also suggested, including converting vacant properties for other uses and providing financial assistance to homeowners facing difficulties [10][11]. Consumer Spending Trends - There are early signs of recovery in the high-end retail market, with a shift in household savings from fixed deposits to more liquid forms, indicating an improvement in risk appetite [12]. - The process of increasing consumer spending as a share of GDP is expected to be gradual, requiring time to identify effective policy tools [12][13]. Future Policy Directions - The Chinese government is anticipated to implement more accommodative policies in the coming months, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand and addressing challenges in the real estate sector [14]. - Expected measures include a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points and an increase in the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio from 12.0% in 2025 to 13.0% in 2026 [14].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs promotes a new batch of Managing Directors every two years, with 638 new appointments announced for 2025, of which 78 are from the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 12% of all new Managing Directors [1] - Among the new Managing Directors, 36 are based in mainland China or Hong Kong [1] - The new appointees graduated from over 395 universities, with nearly half holding master's degrees or higher, and about one-third joined Goldman Sachs through campus recruitment [1][6] Group 2 - The average tenure of the new Managing Directors at Goldman Sachs is 12 years, and they collectively hold citizenship from 54 countries or regions and can speak 53 languages [1][6] - 29% of the new Managing Directors have experience working in multiple departments within Goldman Sachs, while 17% have worked in different regions [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally, driven by strong fundamentals, has raised concerns about a potential bubble, but Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer argues that the market has not yet entered a bubble phase despite some historical similarities [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Asset Bubbles - Historical asset bubbles are often fueled by excitement around transformative technologies, leading to excessive price increases and speculation beyond fundamental values [2]. - The current market shows a high concentration of leadership, with the top ten companies in the U.S. accounting for nearly a quarter of the global stock market value, predominantly in the tech sector [2]. Group 2: IPO and M&A Market Trends - The IPO and M&A markets are heating up, with the average first-day IPO premium in the U.S. reaching 30%, the highest since the late 1990s tech bubble [4]. - While there are signs of excess, the current IPO activity is not comparable to the speculative IPOs of the past, as most tech investments are driven by mature companies' capital expenditures rather than high-risk leverage [4][5]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - Although capital expenditures relative to sales have increased, they remain below historical bubble levels, and leverage is controlled, with most spending funded by internal cash flow rather than debt [5][6]. - The increase in bond issuance by large tech companies does not indicate a bubble, as their overall financial health remains robust, reducing systemic risk [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on diversification, closely monitor capital expenditures and leverage, and avoid overpaying for companies lacking a track record [8]. - Opportunities should be sought in adjacent sectors such as infrastructure and resources, which are crucial for supporting AI development, while being cautious of rising leverage in large tech companies [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes Goldman Sachs' commitment to creating a diverse and inclusive work environment, providing various internship opportunities for students to engage with professionals and gain practical skills [1][8]. - The 2026 Off-Cycle Internship Program in Investment Banking is currently accepting applications, inviting students from universities worldwide to apply [1][3]. - The internship will take place in Beijing from mid-January to early May 2026, requiring full-time commitment for five days a week [5]. Group 2 - The application deadline for the internship is November 2, 2025, at 6:00 p.m. Beijing time, highlighting the urgency for potential applicants [5]. - Eligible candidates include undergraduate and master's students graduating between June 2026 and July 2027, with no specific major requirements [5]. - Desired qualifications include a strong interest in investment banking, proactive attitude, excellent interpersonal and communication skills, strong quantitative and technical abilities, and fluency in English [5].