高盛研究部预测 2026 年全球经济预计将实现 2.8% 的稳健增长 ，高于市场普遍预期的 2.6% 。 美国经济表现将尤为突出 ，预计增长 2.8 % （市场预期 2.0% ），主要得益于 关税拖累减弱、减税政策以及更为宽松的金融环境 。 中国经济也将保持良好势头 ，预计增长 4.8% （市场预期 4.5% ），强劲的出口将有效抵消国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长 期挑战， 欧元区经济前景依然乐观 ，预计增长 1.3% （市场预期 1.1% ），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。 | | | | | 2026 | 2026 共识预测 | | --- | --- | --- | | 全球 | 2.8% | 2.6% | | 美国 | 2.8% | 2.0% | | 欧元区 | 1.3% | 1.2% | | 德国 | 1.1% | 1.0% | | 法国 | 1.2% | 1.0% | | 意大利 | 0.7% | 0.7% | | 西班牙 | 2.4% | 2.2% | | 中国 | 4.8% | 4.5% | | 日本 | 0.8% | 0.7% | | 英国 | 0.9% | 1.1% | | 加拿 ...

每年，我们的暑期实习生都会为高盛带来全新视角。适逢高盛暑期实习生调查满十周年，今年的调查主题除了以往涵盖的人生规划、投资、人工智能等，更增加 了与前几年调查结果的对比。今年共有2100多名实习生参与调查。 47% 地缘关系 27% 科技与创新 * 他们会通过以下方式打发时间: 42% 18% a 听音乐 首两项选择 金钱面面观 实习生在阅读或搜 索新闻时,会查阅 多个来源以比较不 同观点。 76% 商业和金融 受访者可选择最多两项 开始第一份全职工作后,我们 的实习生预计将主要按以下优 先顺序分配可支配资金: 1 投资 储蓄 3 旅行和3 44 关于投资 63% 已投资 37% 完全未投资 自2021年以来，他们的 前两大投资保持不变 53% on न्म 33% 订阅、购物 4 和娱乐 胶宗 EIF 聚焦人工智能 97% 的实习生表示他们 在个人生活中使用 人工智能工具。 93% 86% 与去年入职的实习生大致相同，我们的实习生在个人生活中，最常使用 人工智能工具以: | 31% | 10% D | 16% | 14% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 辅助写作 | 查找事实或 | ...

高盛研究部的 中国首席股票策略师 刘劲津 (Kinger Lau) 及团队近期发布研报，分析 中国"五年规划"的相关投资主题 ，认为解读并遵循顾念规划或将取得 超额回报，并推出了 高盛"十五五"规划投资组合 。 多年来，高盛研究部的亚洲宏观团队创建了 一系列工具来帮助分析和理解中国的政策背景和动态 ，由于数据可得性、频率和质量方面的限制，中国政策环 境可以说比全球其他主要市场更为微妙。因此， 以官方政策声明和新闻报道为中心的文本分析 （例如高盛民企监管指标和高盛中国政策风险晴雨表）已成 为高盛研究部政策分析框架中不可或缺的部分，是公司内部其他量化政策衡量指标的补充。 自"第十个五年计划"以来， MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数的年均复合总回报率达到了 8-10% ，略低于 11% 的名义 GDP 增速。但是，高盛研究部借 助基于大语言模型 (LLM) 的文本分析， 从"五年规划"文件中提取出政策信号并将之转化为多空策略 。此项分析显示，如果投资者根据整体政策趋势调整 其投资组合，应可获得 13% 的年化超额回报。 为未来五年重新定义超额回报投资组合 中国的五年规划目标大多如期兑现 在 2001 年以来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its GDP growth forecasts for China, reflecting an optimistic outlook based on government spending and export growth, with a focus on achieving the economic goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][8]. Economic Growth Forecasts - The actual GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 4.9% to 5.0%, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased from 4.3% and 4.0% to 4.8% and 4.7% respectively, primarily due to an upward revision in export growth predictions [5][8]. - The expectation is that China's exports will grow by 5-6% annually over the next few years, outpacing global trade growth and contributing to overall economic expansion [8]. Export Growth Insights - Despite challenges such as increased tariffs from the U.S., China's actual exports are projected to achieve an annual growth rate of approximately 8%, driven by the competitiveness of Chinese products across various sectors [7][8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors, which is expected to support continued rapid growth in exports and an increase in global market share [7]. Real Estate Market Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on GDP growth is expected to gradually diminish, with the drag on GDP growth estimated at around 2 percentage points annually for 2024 and 2025, potentially decreasing by about 0.5 percentage points each year thereafter [9]. - Recent data indicates a significant decline in new construction starts, with a 20% month-on-month drop in October, and a 30% decrease in second-hand housing prices since their peak in 2021 [9][10]. Policy Measures for Real Estate Stabilization - Potential policy measures to stabilize the real estate market include removing purchase restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and providing subsidies for first-time homebuyers [9][11]. - Strategies to reduce excess inventory and support distressed borrowers are also suggested, including converting vacant properties for other uses and providing financial assistance to homeowners facing difficulties [10][11]. Consumer Spending Trends - There are early signs of recovery in the high-end retail market, with a shift in household savings from fixed deposits to more liquid forms, indicating an improvement in risk appetite [12]. - The process of increasing consumer spending as a share of GDP is expected to be gradual, requiring time to identify effective policy tools [12][13]. Future Policy Directions - The Chinese government is anticipated to implement more accommodative policies in the coming months, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand and addressing challenges in the real estate sector [14]. - Expected measures include a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points and an increase in the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio from 12.0% in 2025 to 13.0% in 2026 [14].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs promotes a new batch of Managing Directors every two years, with 638 new appointments announced for 2025, of which 78 are from the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 12% of all new Managing Directors [1] - Among the new Managing Directors, 36 are based in mainland China or Hong Kong [1] - The new appointees graduated from over 395 universities, with nearly half holding master's degrees or higher, and about one-third joined Goldman Sachs through campus recruitment [1][6] Group 2 - The average tenure of the new Managing Directors at Goldman Sachs is 12 years, and they collectively hold citizenship from 54 countries or regions and can speak 53 languages [1][6] - 29% of the new Managing Directors have experience working in multiple departments within Goldman Sachs, while 17% have worked in different regions [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally, driven by strong fundamentals, has raised concerns about a potential bubble, but Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer argues that the market has not yet entered a bubble phase despite some historical similarities [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Asset Bubbles - Historical asset bubbles are often fueled by excitement around transformative technologies, leading to excessive price increases and speculation beyond fundamental values [2]. - The current market shows a high concentration of leadership, with the top ten companies in the U.S. accounting for nearly a quarter of the global stock market value, predominantly in the tech sector [2]. Group 2: IPO and M&A Market Trends - The IPO and M&A markets are heating up, with the average first-day IPO premium in the U.S. reaching 30%, the highest since the late 1990s tech bubble [4]. - While there are signs of excess, the current IPO activity is not comparable to the speculative IPOs of the past, as most tech investments are driven by mature companies' capital expenditures rather than high-risk leverage [4][5]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - Although capital expenditures relative to sales have increased, they remain below historical bubble levels, and leverage is controlled, with most spending funded by internal cash flow rather than debt [5][6]. - The increase in bond issuance by large tech companies does not indicate a bubble, as their overall financial health remains robust, reducing systemic risk [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on diversification, closely monitor capital expenditures and leverage, and avoid overpaying for companies lacking a track record [8]. - Opportunities should be sought in adjacent sectors such as infrastructure and resources, which are crucial for supporting AI development, while being cautious of rising leverage in large tech companies [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes Goldman Sachs' commitment to creating a diverse and inclusive work environment, providing various internship opportunities for students to engage with professionals and gain practical skills [1][8]. - The 2026 Off-Cycle Internship Program in Investment Banking is currently accepting applications, inviting students from universities worldwide to apply [1][3]. - The internship will take place in Beijing from mid-January to early May 2026, requiring full-time commitment for five days a week [5]. Group 2 - The application deadline for the internship is November 2, 2025, at 6:00 p.m. Beijing time, highlighting the urgency for potential applicants [5]. - Eligible candidates include undergraduate and master's students graduating between June 2026 and July 2027, with no specific major requirements [5]. - Desired qualifications include a strong interest in investment banking, proactive attitude, excellent interpersonal and communication skills, strong quantitative and technical abilities, and fluency in English [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the career journey of a professional at Goldman Sachs, emphasizing the importance of mentorship, cultural fit, and the dynamic nature of investment banking [2][3][5]. Group 1: Career Development - The individual graduated from the University of Hong Kong with a degree in Economics and Finance, influenced by family background in securities and corporate finance [2]. - After a successful internship at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, the individual transitioned to a full-time analyst role in the Greater China technology sector [2][3]. - A subsequent move to the investment banking division in Beijing was motivated by a desire for direct client engagement and a more fulfilling career path [3]. Group 2: Work Environment - The Beijing office emphasizes collaboration with local clients, fostering a strong team culture through social activities and events [4]. - Cultural activities in the Beijing office include team-building events like hiking and sports, contrasting with the more festive events in Hong Kong [4]. - The investment banking division provides comprehensive services related to capital markets, including customized advice for financing, strategic planning, and problem-solving for clients [5]. Group 3: Skills and Values - Key skills required in investment banking include communication, collaboration, and multitasking, essential for managing various projects and client interactions [6]. - The core values of Goldman Sachs include teamwork, excellence, client service, and integrity, which guide the company's operations and client relationships [7][8]. - The company promotes a culture of cooperation and equal opportunity, ensuring that all employees are valued based on their contributions and expertise [8].

Core Insights - The accumulation of wealth in Asia is leading to a critical period for family wealth succession planning over the next 20 to 30 years, with families increasingly prioritizing wealth management and legacy planning [1] - Family succession is not just about preserving assets but also about ensuring the growth of the family business and maintaining family unity, which requires strategic planning and rigor [4] Group 1: Importance of Planning - Succession planning is an ongoing process rather than a one-time event, and initiating plans early helps avoid rushed decisions and ensures a smooth transition [5] - Effective communication is essential for strong family succession, with regular family meetings and the establishment of a "family charter" playing a significant role in aligning family members' opinions [5] Group 2: Guidance and Philanthropy - Effective succession planning involves guidance rather than control, fostering a high-performance family culture that encourages communication, trust, and resilience among family members [6] - Engaging in philanthropy is a powerful way to instill values and unite generations within a family, with many new wealth creators in Asia considering charitable endeavors early in their wealth accumulation [6] Group 3: Empowering the Next Generation - Supporting the next generation is a top priority, with Goldman Sachs being recognized as Asia's Best for Next-Gen services by Euromoney for its commitment to tailored education and innovative digital tools [6][7] - Goldman Sachs offers unique opportunities such as the "Next Gen Summer Series" and events like "Rising Leaders" to foster financial literacy and engagement among young clients, ensuring they are integrated into the firm's ecosystem for lasting legacy [7]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of teamwork and customer-centric values at Goldman Sachs [1][7] - It highlights the commitment to integrity and excellence as core principles of the company [1][7] Group 2 - The article includes a festive greeting for the Mid-Autumn Festival, reflecting the company's cultural engagement [2]