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阿里云何时能到万亿估值?
雷峰网·2025-08-22 07:20

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Cloud's valuation has undergone a significant reversal, driven by market dynamics and organizational adjustments rather than premeditated strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Valuation Changes - Alibaba's stock price has rebounded significantly, rising from 76 HKD to a peak of 143.5 HKD in early 2023, reflecting a shift in market perception towards its valuation [2]. - Historically, the market largely ignored Alibaba Cloud's value, focusing instead on its e-commerce business. However, from the second half of 2023, a re-evaluation of Alibaba Cloud's worth began, with projections suggesting revenues could reach 200-240 billion CNY by 2027-2028 [2][4]. - Current estimates place Alibaba Cloud's valuation at 4-5 times its revenue, a notable increase from 2.8-3 times in 2023 [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Challenges - For a long time, Alibaba Cloud faced valuation challenges, which were exacerbated by a slowdown in revenue growth, dropping from over 50% to single digits in 2022-2023 [5][6]. - The domestic cloud market's profitability issues stem from a reliance on customized projects rather than standardized services, leading to lower margins compared to international counterparts like AWS and Azure [6][8]. - In 2023, Alibaba Cloud initiated a "public cloud first" strategy, restructuring its organization to prioritize public cloud services, which has begun to yield positive results in profitability [10][11]. Group 3: AI's Impact on Valuation - The emergence of AI has been pivotal in driving a complete re-evaluation of Alibaba Cloud, as it has generated substantial new demand for GPU computing resources [12][14]. - AI-related business has seen triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters, contributing to a significant increase in revenue growth rates [14][20]. - Alibaba Cloud's strategy to leverage AI is expected to evolve its business model towards a more platform-oriented approach, similar to AWS and Azure, enhancing its market valuation [20][21]. Group 4: International Expansion - Alibaba Cloud is intensifying its international expansion efforts, aiming to regain momentum in overseas markets within 1-2 years [28][29]. - The current global climate, including the encouragement of Chinese companies to expand abroad, presents a favorable environment for Alibaba Cloud's growth [33]. - Competitive dynamics in the cloud market, particularly among foreign cloud providers facing internal challenges, provide Alibaba Cloud with opportunities to capture market share [34][36]. Group 5: Market Perception and Future Outlook - The market is beginning to recognize Alibaba Cloud as a comprehensive cloud platform capable of delivering AI services and building an application ecosystem, shifting its valuation logic from hardware to services [43]. - With the combination of revenue growth and valuation enhancement, the potential for Alibaba Cloud to achieve a trillion CNY market capitalization is becoming increasingly plausible [43].