三位美联储官员给9月降息泼冷水，鲍威尔今夜讲话面临艰难平衡

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, highlighting the uncertainty in the current economic environment and the potential impact of tariffs on inflation [5][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Views - Cleveland Fed President Mester indicated that there is no reason to lower rates based on current data [5]. - Kansas City Fed President George stated that the current policy is well-positioned and should not be adjusted without clear data [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut this year but acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding any predictions [5]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Goldman Sachs does not expect Powell's speech to clearly indicate a rate cut in September but anticipates he may signal support for a cut [6]. - As of the report, rate futures are pricing in a reduction of approximately 47 basis points this year, with a 70.4% probability of a cut in September [6]. - The financial market is betting on a 25 basis point cut at the next meeting, influenced by unexpectedly weak July employment data and significant downward revisions of May and June data [6]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Despite signs of a weakening labor market that typically support rate cuts, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with potential upward pressure from tariffs [6]. - The article notes that the full impact of tariffs on inflation may not be evident until next year, with concerns that high inflation trends could persist [6][7]. - Mester expressed worries about the sustained high inflation over the past four years and the current trend moving in the wrong direction [6].