【广发资产研究】风险情绪回暖，权益领跑全球——全球大类资产追踪双周报（8月第二期）

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Equity assets significantly outperformed commodities and bonds from August 11 to August 19, leading investors to increase equity risk exposure while maintaining a defensive stance in the bond market [3][9] - Global market risk appetite has shown fluctuations, with recent US-Russia talks boosting sentiment, but concerns arose following Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a retreat in US rate cut expectations [3][9] - In the domestic market, the "deposit migration" phenomenon has positively impacted equity performance, supported by easing external tensions and the effectiveness of domestic "anti-involution" policies [3][10] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - The new investment paradigm emphasizes a "global barbell strategy" as the optimal response to the evolving landscape, driven by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [4][14] - The strategic focus remains on an all-weather optimized barbell strategy, including Chinese government bonds, US short-term treasuries, convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend Chinese stocks, and gold [4][14] - Tactical adjustments suggest a shift towards growth stocks aligned with high-quality development, reducing high-dividend allocations in favor of more elastic assets [5][14] Key Data: Global Economic Indicators and Event Calendar - A calendar of significant global economic data releases from August 24 to September 7 includes key indicators such as China's official composite PMI and the Eurozone's unemployment rate, highlighting their importance for market participants [15][17] Focus Charts: Global Asset Dynamics Tracking - The report includes various charts tracking financial conditions, economic surprises, and market indices, indicating a mixed outlook for the US economy and potential volatility in consumer confidence [21][24][28]