对话韩海峰：韧性超预期下，聚焦三大结构性机会

Core Viewpoint - The capital market in the first half of 2025 exhibited a "barbell" pattern, with small-cap indices performing well while growth and dividend indices lagged. The Chinese economy is at an "L-shaped" bottom, with the peak of corporate profit pressure likely passed, driven by PPI recovery and "anti-involution" policies that may lead to profit restoration [3][6][10]. Capital Market Review - The capital market showed a significant "barbell" characteristic, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 2000 small-cap index performing well, while growth and dividend indices underperformed [6]. - Concerns over tariffs have diminished, as the market realized that the tax rate differences between China and other countries were not as significant as initially feared. Despite a 34% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in May, overall exports from China remained positive, indicating resilience [7]. - The strong performance of Hong Kong stocks can be attributed to southbound capital flows and the resonance of multiple industries, particularly pharmaceuticals, materials, technology, and finance [8]. - Economic concerns persist, with PPI experiencing three consecutive years of negative growth and real estate investment declining for four years, raising worries about future economic growth [9]. Macroeconomic Outlook - The domestic economy is at an "L-shaped" bottom, with fiscal policy showing a notable increase in its share of GDP. However, much of this fiscal spending is directed towards debt resolution rather than direct economic stimulation [10]. - Export resilience is supported by two main factors: improvements in manufacturing capabilities and currency fluctuations. The depreciation of the dollar has made Chinese exports more competitive despite a stronger yuan against the dollar [12]. - The insurance sector has seen significant improvements in sales, driven by a reduction in the number of agents and an increase in productivity per agent post-pandemic [13]. Capital Market Outlook - Corporate profit pressure appears to have peaked, with signs of recovery expected as PPI rebounds. The "anti-involution" policy may help improve profitability in competitive industries [15]. - The current risk premium in the A-share market is high, suggesting attractive valuation levels for potential returns [18]. - Future capital market growth may be supported by three key sources of incremental funds: increased household savings, institutional investments, and foreign capital inflows [19][20]. Investment Opportunities - Focus on opportunities for profit recovery as the economy remains at the bottom of the "L" shape, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics [21]. - Emphasis on dividend strategies in a low-interest-rate environment, particularly in manufacturing and consumer sectors, as companies reduce capital expenditures [22]. - Growth opportunities in new products and technologies, particularly in AI and new consumer scenarios, are expected to emerge [23].