来源 | 聪明投 资者 （ID: Capital-nature） 作者 | 汤姆 ·斯莱特（ Tom Slater） 预计阅读时间：8分钟 苏格兰抵押信托（ SMT）掌舵人 汤姆 ·斯莱特 （ Tom Slater） 最近写了一份手记，标题是《 韧 性的时代：唯有先活下来的企业，才能最终跑赢 》。 SMT 的历史可以追溯到 1909年， 至今已经 持续运行 116年，是全球历史最久远的投资信托之 一。作为掌舵人， 汤姆 ·斯莱特在最新的手记中强调，真正的长期赢家不是那些看似无风险的公 司，而是能够在冲击中展现韧性、并不断自我重塑的企业。他强调，更要聚焦可以预测的事情 。 本文节选自聪明投资者的精译 整理。 韧性时代：唯有先活下来的企业，才能最终跑赢 汤姆 ·斯莱特 / 文 在不确定性达到峰值的时代，苏格兰抵押 信托 （ Scottish Mortgage）寻找的是那些能够经受冲击的 企业。拥有雄厚财力、能够在变化的市场中持续创新的公司，正符合这一特质。 信托依旧敢于追求卓越的成长，但也希望对其投资组合中企业的适应力拥有更大的把握。 但 正如任何投资一样，你的本金都存在风险。 1921年，芝加哥学派经济学家弗兰 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The realization of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is seen as a certainty, with the ultimate goal being the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) that can self-iterate and surpass human intelligence [2][9]. Group 1: Stages of AI Development - The path to ASI will undergo three stages: "Intelligent Emergence," "Autonomous Action," and "Self-Iteration" [2][6]. - The first stage, "Intelligent Emergence," is characterized by AI's ability to learn from the vast digitalized knowledge of humanity, leading to general conversational abilities and reasoning skills [3][4]. - The second stage, "Autonomous Action," allows AI to perform real-world tasks under human guidance, significantly impacting various industries such as logistics, manufacturing, and finance [4][5]. - The third stage, "Self-Iteration," involves AI connecting to raw data from the physical world and utilizing self-learning mechanisms to enhance its capabilities [6][8]. Group 2: AI Capabilities and Applications - AI's ability to use tools (Tool Use) enables it to perform complex tasks and interact with both digital and physical environments [4][5]. - The enhancement of AI's coding capabilities is crucial for solving more complex problems and automating tasks, paving the way toward AGI [4][10]. - Future AI models will allow users to create agents using natural language, democratizing software development and expanding the potential developer base [10][11]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Market Implications - The emergence of AI Cloud as the next generation of computing infrastructure will require massive computational resources, transitioning from CPU-centric to GPU-centric paradigms [11]. - The future landscape may consist of only a few super AI cloud platforms capable of meeting the vast demands of AI applications across industries [11]. - AI is expected to become a critical commodity, driving productivity and innovation across various sectors, with its capabilities delivered in the form of tokens [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of "disruptive innovation" as a key focus in technological development, rooted in Clayton Christensen's theory from nearly 30 years ago, which continues to inspire new thoughts and reflections among businesses and individuals [3][4]. Summary by Sections About the Book - Christensen's book, published in 1997, remains relevant today, as evidenced by a 2019 study in *Nature* that builds on the concept of disruptive innovation. The book analyzes over 30 years of the hard disk industry, arguing that many companies fail not due to poor management or insufficient R&D, but because well-managed companies lose market share [6][8]. Two Types of Innovation - The author distinguishes between two types of innovation: sustaining innovation, which optimizes existing technologies, and disruptive innovation, which creates new markets and ultimately replaces existing products. Established companies typically engage in sustaining innovation, while startups rely on disruptive innovation to capture market share [7][8]. Reasons for Failure - Mature companies struggle with disruptive innovation due to their entrenchment in existing value networks, which prioritize stable, high-margin customers over uncertain, low-margin emerging markets. This leads to missed opportunities, as illustrated by the example of Seagate's failure to capitalize on the 3.5-inch hard drive due to its focus on desktop computer manufacturers [9][11]. How to Overcome the Innovation Dilemma - To avoid the innovation dilemma, mature companies can adopt three strategies: altering the growth rate of emerging markets, entering markets once they reach a certain scale, or establishing independent units for experimentation. The third option is favored, as it allows for more flexibility and innovation without the constraints of established processes and culture [12][13]. Other Possible Implications - The book's insights may extend beyond corporate management to historical studies, such as the decline of empires, suggesting that bureaucratic inertia and corruption can lead to failure. This cross-disciplinary approach could provide new perspectives on both corporate and historical decline [14][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that cash is a poor long-term investment, and investors should diversify their portfolios beyond real estate and cash deposits [2][5] - A balanced and diversified investment portfolio can mitigate significant market volatility, as different asset classes perform differently under varying market conditions [4][6] - Investors should avoid trying to time the market, as it is essentially a zero-sum game, and instead focus on maintaining a well-diversified portfolio [4][8] Group 2 - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding that asset returns consist of price changes and interest, and caution is advised when returns are primarily driven by price appreciation rather than interest [6][7] - It is suggested that investors should not solely focus on individual components of their portfolio but rather consider how these components work together to create a well-diversified investment strategy [4][8] - The concept of risk balancing is introduced, where combining non-correlated assets can significantly reduce overall portfolio risk while maintaining expected returns [9][10] Group 3 - The importance of rebalancing investment portfolios is emphasized, as it helps to maintain strategic asset allocation and avoid emotional decision-making [24][26] - The article discusses the role of gold as a non-yielding asset, suggesting it should be viewed as a form of currency that can effectively diversify risk [13][15] - The potential structural decline of the US dollar is addressed, linking it to the excessive growth of debt and the implications for monetary policy [16][18] Group 4 - The article mentions the limitations of stablecoins as a wealth storage tool, emphasizing their role in transactions rather than as an investment asset [17][19] - The discussion includes the importance of teaching financial literacy and the value of saving, particularly through the practice of gifting gold coins to younger generations [21][22] - The necessity of having a solid financial foundation before taking on higher investment risks is highlighted, advocating for a disciplined approach to investing [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the ten-year development of China's innovative drug industry, highlighting significant breakthroughs in quantity, quality, and technology, supported by a complete industrial chain, the growth of CXO, and increased investment in research and development [2][3]. Summary by Sections Development of Innovative Drugs - China's self-developed innovative drugs have ranked first globally, with over 50% of popular target pipelines now accounted for by China, expected to exceed 60% by June 2025 [6]. - The proportion of FIC (First-in-Class) molecules developed by Chinese companies has risen from 9 in 2015 to 120 by 2024, indicating a significant release of potential in original drug research [9]. Technological Breakthroughs - The gap in drug approval times between China and the U.S. has narrowed significantly, from about 8 years before 2015 to less than 2 years post-2015, with some FIC drugs being approved first in China [15][16]. Industrial Chain Advantages - China has a complete industrial chain from raw materials to services, with significant production capabilities in nucleotides and a robust logistics network enhancing the innovative drug sector [18]. - The CXO model has strengthened the industrial foundation for innovative drugs, making China an indispensable part of the global biopharmaceutical industry [19]. - China boasts a large, cost-effective, and younger pool of pharmaceutical engineers, with the number of science and engineering PhD graduates expected to be double that of the U.S. by 2025 [20][21]. Research and Development Growth - The output of biomedical research papers in China has grown rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3% from 2015 to 2020, making it the second-largest producer of such papers after the U.S. [22]. - R&D expenditures in the biopharmaceutical sector have increased from 19.2 billion yuan in 2016 to 119.04 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 29.8% [22]. Market Dynamics - The average time from application to approval for innovative drugs in China has decreased by 57 days, with priority-reviewed drugs seeing an even greater reduction of 189 days [30]. - The market share of domestically developed innovative drugs has increased from 18.7% in 2015 to 27.8% in 2024, indicating a significant breakthrough against foreign competitors [34].

Core Viewpoint - Leverage is not a shortcut to wealth but a double-edged sword that amplifies both risks and returns, often leading to significant losses in volatile markets [7][8]. Group 1: The Nature of Leverage - Leverage itself does not create value and is not a low-risk, high-return arbitrage tool [8]. - Leveraged ETFs experience "volatility drag," which erodes returns over time, especially in fluctuating markets [9][28]. - The asymmetry of gains and losses is exacerbated by leverage, making it more challenging to recover from losses [12][17]. Group 2: Risks of Leveraged ETFs - A 3x leveraged ETF can theoretically become worthless if the underlying index drops more than 33.33% in a single day [14]. - The concept of "fixed leverage trap" indicates that after a loss, the base for future leverage is reduced, complicating recovery [17]. - High management fees and tracking errors in leveraged ETFs further diminish returns, akin to physical energy losses [21]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Market Conditions - The 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL) has shown impressive annualized returns of over 30% in certain periods, outperforming broader indices like NASDAQ and S&P 500 [23][40]. - However, the extreme volatility and significant drawdowns, such as in 2022, highlight the risks associated with leveraged products [26][40]. - The timing of market conditions is crucial for leveraged investments, making long-term holding risky [27][41]. Group 4: Guidelines for Ordinary Investors - Leverage amplifies both risk and reward, making it essential for investors to approach it with caution [47]. - The long-term viability of investments should focus on value creation rather than merely leveraging returns [53]. - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid heavy leverage and to prioritize survival and long-term investment strategies over short-term gains [55].

Core Viewpoint - The capital market in the first half of 2025 exhibited a "barbell" pattern, with small-cap indices performing well while growth and dividend indices lagged. The Chinese economy is at an "L-shaped" bottom, with the peak of corporate profit pressure likely passed, driven by PPI recovery and "anti-involution" policies that may lead to profit restoration [3][6][10]. Capital Market Review - The capital market showed a significant "barbell" characteristic, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 2000 small-cap index performing well, while growth and dividend indices underperformed [6]. - Concerns over tariffs have diminished, as the market realized that the tax rate differences between China and other countries were not as significant as initially feared. Despite a 34% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in May, overall exports from China remained positive, indicating resilience [7]. - The strong performance of Hong Kong stocks can be attributed to southbound capital flows and the resonance of multiple industries, particularly pharmaceuticals, materials, technology, and finance [8]. - Economic concerns persist, with PPI experiencing three consecutive years of negative growth and real estate investment declining for four years, raising worries about future economic growth [9]. Macroeconomic Outlook - The domestic economy is at an "L-shaped" bottom, with fiscal policy showing a notable increase in its share of GDP. However, much of this fiscal spending is directed towards debt resolution rather than direct economic stimulation [10]. - Export resilience is supported by two main factors: improvements in manufacturing capabilities and currency fluctuations. The depreciation of the dollar has made Chinese exports more competitive despite a stronger yuan against the dollar [12]. - The insurance sector has seen significant improvements in sales, driven by a reduction in the number of agents and an increase in productivity per agent post-pandemic [13]. Capital Market Outlook - Corporate profit pressure appears to have peaked, with signs of recovery expected as PPI rebounds. The "anti-involution" policy may help improve profitability in competitive industries [15]. - The current risk premium in the A-share market is high, suggesting attractive valuation levels for potential returns [18]. - Future capital market growth may be supported by three key sources of incremental funds: increased household savings, institutional investments, and foreign capital inflows [19][20]. Investment Opportunities - Focus on opportunities for profit recovery as the economy remains at the bottom of the "L" shape, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics [21]. - Emphasis on dividend strategies in a low-interest-rate environment, particularly in manufacturing and consumer sectors, as companies reduce capital expenditures [22]. - Growth opportunities in new products and technologies, particularly in AI and new consumer scenarios, are expected to emerge [23].

Core Viewpoint - The financial industry is undergoing a value reassessment during the interest rate down cycle, with significant differences in the underlying logic of banks, insurance, and brokerage firms [2][6]. Group 1: Banking Sector - The banking sector is facing three main concerns: declining interest margins, potential bad debts, and future credit demand post-economic restructuring [7]. - The net interest margin for listed banks has been on a downward trend, currently around 1.5%, which may not cover operational costs and potential bad debts [7]. - Despite concerns about bad debts, the asset quality of banks has been gradually improving, with non-performing loan ratios decreasing over the years [9]. - The real estate sector's downturn has raised concerns about banks' bad debts, but recent policy changes have restored some market confidence [9]. - There is a significant disparity in the performance and asset quality among different banks, with some achieving over 10% annual profit growth while others face negative growth [12][13]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - The insurance industry is influenced by stock market performance, policy sales, and long-term bond interest rates, with a strong correlation observed historically [19][20]. - The current low interest rate environment poses a risk of interest margin loss for insurance companies, but recent improvements in policy sales are noted [23]. - The aging population is expected to drive insurance demand growth, and the suppressed demand during the pandemic is gradually being released [29]. Group 3: Brokerage Sector - Mergers and acquisitions are expected to be a key theme for the brokerage sector this year, alongside a recovery in market trading volume [32]. - The brokerage business may face challenges in proprietary trading, particularly in bond investments, which have contributed significantly to profits in the past [32]. - The potential for a revival in IPO activities is being closely monitored, especially in the Hong Kong market [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article commemorates the life and contributions of Xu Zhuoyun, a prominent historian and scholar, emphasizing his dedication to understanding and documenting the lives of ordinary people throughout Chinese history [2][3][4]. Group 1: Xu Zhuoyun's Background and Career - Xu Zhuoyun was born in 1930 in Xiamen, Fujian, and had a distinguished academic career in Taiwan, the United States, and Hong Kong, focusing on Chinese cultural history, social economic history, and ancient Chinese history [2][4]. - He was influenced by his early experiences during the war, which shaped his perspective on history, leading him to prioritize the experiences of common people over traditional narratives focused on great figures and events [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Philosophy and Approach - Xu Zhuoyun's historical framework is based on a dynamic system analysis involving cultural, economic, social, and political systems, emphasizing the importance of understanding history as a constantly evolving narrative [5][9]. - He advocated for a more holistic approach to history education, arguing that it should be accessible to the general public rather than confined to academic circles [7][8]. Group 3: Concept of "China" - Xu Zhuoyun defined "China" not merely as a nation-state but as a complex, evolving community shaped by diverse cultural, political, and social interactions over thousands of years [9][12]. - He believed that the essence of Chinese culture is rooted in a shared human experience that transcends borders and emphasizes collective destiny [12][14]. Group 4: Inner Peace and Life Philosophy - Xu Zhuoyun emphasized the importance of inner richness and self-awareness, drawing on historical figures like Confucius and Su Dongpo to illustrate the value of finding peace and contentment in life [16][18][20]. - He argued that true strength in life comes from understanding one's existence and maintaining dignity, regardless of external circumstances [18][21].