据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普1月3日宣布，美国在对委内瑞拉的行动中抓获委总统马杜罗及其夫人，并将他们带离委内瑞 拉。 全球市场震惊之余，普遍认为美国行此非常之举，重要目标在于扩张其在委内瑞拉的能源资源利益，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大 的已探明原油储量。 石油资源本应是发展的福音，但在美国的霸权面前，却成了外部强权觊觎的"原罪"。委内瑞拉的遭遇表明，对于身处强权阴 影下的拉美国家而言，如何有效地进行国家能力的建设、探索自主的发展道路，是关乎主权存续的核心命题。 以下内容转自新京报书评周刊，摘编自《透视委内瑞拉》。 来源 | 新京报书评周刊 作者 | 王鹏 预计阅读时间：16分钟 01 历史遗产影响下的国家形成 拉美国家的创造更多表现为国家形成而非国家建构。不同于西欧的战争催化型国家形成，拉美的国家形成主要是贸易催化型国家形 成。国际贸易机遇是国家缔造者主要考虑的问题。他们的主要目标是创造较为有利的商业环境，以便扩大国际贸易，而贸易带来的 关税是政府财政收入的主要来源。就军事力量而言，国家缔造者具有相对优势，但不足以在短时间内扫平地方割据势力。在这种背 景下，针对大小考迪罗 （注：考迪罗"是西班牙语 "Caudillo ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of gold price fluctuations and emphasizes understanding its four core attributes: commodity, monetary, financial, and hedging properties, to clarify the underlying logic of its price movements [3][4]. Group 1: Gold's Four Core Attributes - **Commodity Property**: Gold prices are primarily determined by supply and demand dynamics, with demand influenced by economic cycles and market expectations. The main contributors to gold demand are jewelry, investment, and central bank purchases, while industrial demand is relatively low [5]. - **Monetary Property**: Gold is considered "hard currency" due to its scarcity, durability, and universal acceptance, serving as an effective store of value. Its price is closely linked to the US dollar index, typically decreasing when the dollar strengthens and increasing when the dollar weakens [6][9]. - **Financial Property**: Gold's investment value is shaped by real interest rates, expected inflation rates, and market liquidity. Lower real interest rates increase gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset, especially during periods of low interest rates or rate cuts by central banks [14][15]. - **Hedging Property**: Gold performs well in risk scenarios where market pessimism rises, making it a preferred asset over riskier investments. Historical events show that gold prices tend to rise during crises, highlighting its unique characteristics as a safe-haven asset [17][18]. Group 2: Historical Review of Gold Price Movements - Historical analysis indicates that significant price movements in gold are closely related to Federal Reserve policies, inflation changes, and central bank behaviors. Major price increases are driven by structural trends like de-dollarization and central bank diversification, alongside cyclical factors such as inflation and risk aversion [21][22]. - Price declines are often triggered by tightening monetary policies, rapid inflation declines, or central bank sell-offs. For instance, the period from 1983 to 1985 saw a drop of over 40% due to US economic recovery and interest rate hikes [23][24]. - The article highlights that current global challenges, including debt expansion and economic slowdown, have accentuated gold's monetary and hedging properties, leading to recent price surges. Notably, Ray Dalio views gold as a hedge against unsustainable debt levels, suggesting a reasonable allocation of 10% to 15% in investment portfolios [25].

二、 规范运作的私募基金公司须严格遵守法律法规所要求的合规规定 ， 我司从未开展或授意任何个人或机构以任何形式从事任 何种类的违法证券活动，且不会以无论个人还是机构名义通过互联网平 台进行任何形式的荐股行为，不会通过互联网进行任何形 式的非法集资活动 。请广大投资者遇到不规范证券活动时注意甄别。 三、高毅资产唯一官方网 站为 ：www.gyasset.com，官方微信公众号为：高毅资产管理（ID：gyzcgl）、高毅资产客户服务 （ID：gyasset），此外在微博、雪球、百度、头条、东方财富网等少数网站平台上开设的官方账号请以平台加V认证为准。 请 广大投资者注意甄别。 我们发现多起不法分子冒充高毅资产或高毅资产员工在互联网平台开展非法荐股、非法集资等违法证券活动的事件，涉嫌骗取投 资者钱财。 我们已通过法律手段以及报告监 管部门、互联网平台等多重途径进行维权和打击违法活动。 同时为提醒广大投资者 保护合法权益，高毅资产郑重声明及提示如下： 一、高毅资产全称为"上海高毅资产管理合伙企业（有限合伙）"，为中国证券投资基金业协会备案的私 募证券投资基金管理人 （登记编码：P1002305）。请合格投资者在接受服 ...

| 高教资产 15 te 的主 行业研究员(电新方向) 人力资源实习生 公司将为候选人提供 有市场竞争力的薪酬待遇。 不拘一格访寻人才！ 只要你够优秀, 就有机会加入我们, 共同打造中国资管行业一流团队! 招聘职位 行业研究员(电新方向) 工作地点:深圳/上海 需求人数:1人 岗位职责: 根据团队分工,对所覆盖行业和公司进行深入研究,挖 掘投资机会,进行投资研究分析。 任职要求: 1、具有2年或以上资产管理机构、证券公司等研究工作 经验,覆盖电力设备及新能源等领域; 2、对行业研究工作有极强的热情和好奇心，有较强的 学习能力，分析总结能力强,善于表达,抗压能力强, 愿意长期从事行业研究分析工作; 3、流利的英语口语,英语可作为工作语言者优先。 人力资源实习生 工作地点:深圳 需求人数:1人 岗位职责: 1、协助组织和实施员工培训活动,包括但不限于培训 材料准备、活动现场组织、培训活动素材收集、培训效 果调研评估等工作; 2、协助开展公司企业文化建设工作,包括但不限于宣 传活动策划、活动视频拍摄和剪辑、宣传稿件整理和 编辑等工作; 3、完成部门交办的其他工作。 招聘职位 任职要求: 1、本科或研究生在读,202 ...

刘润 . 以下文章来源于刘润 ，作者点这里关注→ 降低商业的认知门槛。刘润，润米咨询创始人，战略咨询顾问，"5分钟商学院"课程主理人。曾为海 尔、中远、恒基、百度等企业提供过战略咨询服务，每年10月举办"进化的力量·年度演讲"，为创业者 企业家们提供年度规划的参考方向，一起更早看到未来。 来源 | 刘润（ID：runliu-pub) 观点 | 刘润 主笔 | 二蔓 责编 | 歌平 预计阅读时间：6分钟 | 润米咨询原创了一个"战略六变量"： | | --- | | 1）价值。这是你存在的根本理由； | | 2）稀缺。能让你卖得更贵。因为你有，别人没有； | | 3）壁垒。能让你做得更久。比如专利壁垒。比如生态壁垒。比如特许经营权； | | 4）资产。能让你赚得更容易。比如品牌资产。比如粉丝资产； | | 5）杠杆。能让你做得更大。比如产品杠杆。比如资本杠杆； | | 6）飞轮。能让你越发展越快。比如价格飞轮。 | | 但是，经常会有伙伴说，道理我都懂，可咱这不是没有嘛。尤其是壁垒。又是专利，又是生态，又 | | 是特许经营权。哪有这么容易。 | | 我很想说，就是因为难得，就是因为不容易，所以才能帮你建立优势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of investment strategies, particularly the tension between growth and value investing, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of these concepts in the context of modern economic changes [6][8][9]. Group 1: Growth vs. Value Investing - James Anderson acknowledges a widening divide between growth and value investing, suggesting that traditional value metrics may not suffice in a changing economic landscape dominated by tech giants like Microsoft and Google [8]. - The article highlights that while growth and value investing appear divergent, they share fundamental principles, such as the importance of honest long-term cash flow estimation and risk awareness [9]. - Anderson emphasizes the need for a longer time perspective and serious company research, valuing patience and governance sensitivity inherent in value investing [9][10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Literature - The article notes a lack of literature supporting growth investing compared to the extensive documentation of value investing, which has a rich tradition and numerous classic texts [11][13]. - It references Benjamin Graham's views on growth stocks, indicating that while he recognized their potential, he also warned of their speculative nature and preferred investing in larger, less popular companies [13][14]. - The article argues that the realities of the past decade have diverged from Graham's observations, with growth stocks outperforming traditional value stocks [15]. Group 3: Future Investment Landscape - The article posits that future returns are highly uncertain, urging a reevaluation of investment beliefs and strategies in light of complex market dynamics [18][30]. - It suggests that understanding structural changes in the global economy is crucial for predicting long-term investment outcomes, rather than focusing solely on short-term financial metrics [33][34]. - The piece warns against relying on historical volatility to forecast future performance, advocating for a mindset open to exploring various possibilities [38][39]. Group 4: Case Studies - The article compares Coca-Cola and Facebook, illustrating how traditional value metrics may misrepresent the potential of high-growth companies [64][69]. - It highlights that Coca-Cola's growth has stagnated, while Facebook has shown significant growth potential, challenging the notion of which company represents true value [66][70]. - The automotive industry is used as a case study, showcasing how different companies within the sector exhibit varying growth and value characteristics, with General Motors and Ferrari serving as contrasting examples [82][88].

Veronika Soboleva： 大家早上好！首先，非常感谢任总将ICPC的队伍带到练秋湖这么漂亮的园区， 非常荣幸今天能够来到这里。所有参加的成员都代表ICPC，这一年都非常努力，他们来自超过三十多 个国家和地区，有110多人，包括来自世界各地的教练和参赛获胜者。有一些同事是远程参加，有一些 是现场参加，非常高兴来到这里分享我们的想法，聆听您的洞见。非常感谢华为的周到安排，感谢将 ICPC整个社区的教练和参赛选手带到这里，我们有三部分的关键工作，包括与学术界、院校和产业界 连接到一起，所以这是一个非常好的活动。欢迎大家！ ICPC主席： 首先，非常感谢邀请我们来到这个美丽的园区，这是一个方方面面都非常棒的地方，是一 个广交朋友、一起聚会的好地方。我想对大家表达感谢，给我们提供这样的机会。英语有一个非常好 的词是"together"，能够聚在一起，非常感谢！ 任正非： 非常感谢ICPC主席、各位教练、各位年轻的世界金牌获得者。我们认为，我们正处在一个快 速变动的时代，希望在年轻人，你们正放射着青春的光芒。你们是年轻人的榜样，时代的希望是寄托 在你们青年人身上的。 来源 | 上海证券报 预计阅读时间：30分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of an industry lifecycle framework in conducting industry research, highlighting the need for a structured approach to understand market dynamics and investment opportunities [3][6]. Industry Lifecycle Framework - The industry lifecycle can be divided into four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, influenced by customer adoption patterns [6][7]. - The framework aligns with Everett Rogers' innovation diffusion theory, categorizing users into five types based on their adoption speed [6]. - The introduction phase is characterized by few users and uncertain market potential, while the growth phase sees rapid user adoption and increasing demand [6][7]. - In the maturity phase, growth slows as new customer acquisition diminishes, leading to increased competition and declining margins [7]. - The decline phase is marked by stagnant user growth and the emergence of substitutes, where only companies with significant scale or cost advantages can remain competitive [7][8]. Research Focus by Lifecycle Stage - In the introduction phase, the primary concern is the feasibility of the business model, focusing on real demand and sustainable profitability [10]. - For the growth phase, attention shifts to market size and potential, estimating future growth over the next 3-5 years [11]. - In the maturity phase, the focus is on the industry's competitive advantages and the potential for new growth avenues, assessing supply constraints and competitive dynamics [11][12]. - In the decline phase, research should pivot to substitute products, as the industry may no longer be a viable investment [11]. Market Size and Scale - Market size is crucial for determining the potential for large companies to emerge, with a focus on Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) [16][17]. - Different stages of the lifecycle require different market size metrics, with TAM being critical in the introduction phase and SAM and SOM becoming more relevant in growth and maturity phases [17]. Competitive Landscape and Profitability - The competitive landscape significantly influences profitability, with a focus on market share and industry concentration [23][24]. - Understanding horizontal competition (within the same industry) and vertical relationships (across the supply chain) is essential for assessing overall industry health and profitability [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the "Pareto Principle" in investing, highlighting that a small percentage of key decisions and time periods contribute significantly to overall returns, suggesting that wealth accumulation relies on making the right choices and being present during critical return periods [2][3]. Group 1: Value Investors and the Pareto Effect - Value investors focus 80% of their efforts on identifying the 20% of companies that possess sustainable competitive advantages, thereby ignoring short-term market noise and concentrating on long-term factors such as business model sustainability and cash flow health [3][4]. - The strategy of value investors is to accept periods of low returns while remaining vigilant for opportunities when high-quality assets are undervalued due to market panic [5][6]. Group 2: Long-Termism in Value Investing - Long-termism is a rational response by value investors to the 80/20 distribution, allowing them to maintain focus on enduring value rather than short-term fluctuations [6][5]. - The quote from Benjamin Graham illustrates that while short-term market movements are driven by emotions, long-term performance reflects true value, reinforcing the importance of patience in investment [5]. Group 3: Staying Present to Capture Returns - The article provides data on the S&P 500 index, showing that missing the top 20 trading days from 2005 to 2023 would significantly reduce annualized returns from approximately 7.42% to 5.5%, and missing the top 100 days could lead to near-zero returns [9]. - In emerging markets, the disparity in returns is even more pronounced, with significant gains concentrated in a small fraction of time, emphasizing the need for investors to remain engaged during these critical periods [9][10]. - The concept of "being present" is crucial for value investors, as it ensures they do not miss out on key moments when market prices align with intrinsic value [10].