鲍威尔讲话将上演哪种剧本？一文读懂三大情景下的市场风暴

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly focused on Jerome Powell's upcoming speech regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with expectations of a rate cut in September and potential further cuts by the end of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Powell's Speech - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's statements, as any deviation from expected dovishness could lead to market volatility [1]. - If Powell indicates a more conservative rate cut path than anticipated, U.S. stocks may face downward pressure due to high valuations reflecting an overly optimistic outlook [1]. - Conversely, if Powell suggests a more dovish approach, it could provide a boost to major companies' future earnings, positively impacting the stock market [2]. Group 2: Scenarios of Powell's Speech - Scenario 1: If Powell's comments are more hawkish than expected, it could lead to a market correction as investors reassess their positions [1]. - Scenario 2: A dovish stance from Powell, while beneficial for overall market sentiment, may lead to a rotation within the stock market, potentially sidelining leading tech stocks [2]. - Scenario 3: If Powell's remarks align with market expectations, confirming a September rate cut and another by year-end, the market reaction could range from neutral to negative due to profit-taking behavior [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Environment - The market continues to fluctuate based on interest rate-sensitive information, highlighting the critical role of monetary policy in the current economic landscape [5].