【脱水研报】存款回报下降，“储蓄搬家”去向何处？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of declining deposit rates and the potential reallocation of funds, particularly towards wealth management and insurance products, as well as the equity market, in light of significant deposit maturities in 2025 [2][8]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - As of May 2025, the deposit rates for major banks like ICBC are set at 0.95% for 1-year, 1.05% for 2-year, and 1.25% for 3-year deposits, indicating a significant drop in rates [2]. - In 2025, approximately 52.4 trillion yuan of deposits from the six major banks will mature, with an estimated total of 108.3 trillion yuan across deposit-taking financial institutions [2][6]. Group 2: Fund Reallocation - The outflow of deposits is expected to primarily shift towards wealth management and insurance, with deposits decreasing by 4.3 trillion yuan, while wealth management and insurance premiums are projected to increase by 3.1 trillion yuan and 530 billion yuan, respectively, by June 2025 compared to June 2023 [8]. - Since 2022, the yields on real estate and fixed-income assets have declined, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 index has surpassed the risk-free rate, indicating a growing advantage for equity assets [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current trend of deposit migration is different from previous cycles, as real estate yields have turned negative since 2021, prompting residents to seek higher-risk, higher-return assets [11]. - The equity market is showing signs of recovery, and if the profit-making effect spreads, it could lead to an influx of funds into the market, with the previous "stock-property seesaw" issue no longer a concern [11]. Group 4: Insurance Sector Impact - A recent government meeting proposed that insurance companies allocate 30% of new premiums to invest in A-shares, which could potentially bring in an additional 100 billion yuan annually to the equity market [15][19]. - The current investment ratio of insurance in stocks and funds is around 13%, indicating significant room for growth in equity investments [15].