Core Viewpoint - The market is highly focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is expected to provide insights into the latest interest rate policy, particularly regarding the anticipated rate cuts in September and potential further cuts by the end of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Powell's Speech - Investors are almost certain about a rate cut in September and are closely monitoring Powell's indications regarding the policy path for the remainder of the year [2]. - The market is sensitive to any deviations from the expected dovish stance, with a 47% probability of two rate cuts by the end of the year, which could lead to significant market volatility [2][4]. Group 2: Scenarios Based on Powell's Indications - Scenario 1: Hawkish Indications If Powell suggests a more conservative rate cut path than expected, U.S. equities may face downward pressure due to high valuations reflecting an overly optimistic outlook [4]. - Scenario 2: Dovish Indications A more accommodative stance from Powell could boost future earnings growth for major companies, positively impacting U.S. equities, although this scenario is considered the least likely [6]. - Scenario 3: Meeting Market Expectations If Powell's speech aligns with market expectations, confirming a September rate cut and another by year-end, market reactions could range from neutral to negative, as investors might engage in "sell the news" behavior [8].
鲍威尔讲话将上演哪种剧本?一文读懂三大情景下的市场风暴
对冲研投·2025-08-22 12:33