暗示降息，全球沸腾！

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a cautious approach towards potential interest rate cuts, emphasizing the heightened uncertainty that complicates monetary policy decisions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders currently estimate a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to Powell's speech [1]. - The market is pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year [1]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Powell noted that while the labor market remains robust and the economy shows resilience, downside risks are increasing [3][6]. - He warned that increased tariffs could lead to new inflationary pressures, raising the risk of stagflation, which the Fed aims to avoid [3][6]. Group 3: Policy Framework Review - Powell discussed the Fed's five-year review of its policy framework, acknowledging past mistakes in underestimating inflation, which reached a 40-year high [7]. - The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to a long-term inflation target of 2%, which is seen as crucial for maintaining stable inflation expectations [7].