鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔放鸽！强调就业风险，暗示可能因此需要降息

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic situation suggests an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate interest rate cuts [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions and Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy changes, with the labor market close to maximum employment and inflation having decreased significantly from pandemic highs [5][6]. - Powell noted that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "peculiar balance" due to a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, indicating rising downside risks to employment [3][8]. - GDP growth has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending [8]. Labor Market Insights - Recent employment reports show a slowdown in job growth, averaging only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months, significantly lower than the projected 168,000 jobs per month for 2024 [7][8]. - Despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, it remains historically low, with other labor market indicators showing little change [7][8]. Inflation Dynamics - Powell highlighted that short-term inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging scenario for monetary policy [4][10]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with the PCE price index rising by 2.6% over the past year, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [8][9]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether the price increases from tariffs will lead to sustained inflation, although long-term inflation expectations remain stable [9][10]. Monetary Policy Implications - The current policy rate is closer to neutral, allowing for cautious consideration of policy adjustments based on evolving economic data and risk assessments [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve's framework emphasizes the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices, with recent revisions aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability [11][15]. Framework Review and Adjustments - The review of the monetary policy framework reflects changes in economic conditions over the past five years, acknowledging the need for flexibility in response to evolving challenges [15][19]. - Key changes include the removal of language emphasizing the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining characteristic of the economic environment, and a return to a flexible inflation target framework [16][17]. - The revised consensus statement aims to clarify the approach to balancing employment and inflation targets during periods of conflict [18][19].