中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、银行

Strategy - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, with a current probability of 92% according to CME futures, leading to discussions on its impact on the U.S. and Chinese markets. The short-term effect is seen as positive for China, but this benefit may be limited and not the primary driver. Two ways to amplify this benefit include implementing more aggressive monetary and fiscal easing and identifying structural opportunities between the U.S. and China, particularly in sectors related to real estate and commodities that may benefit from increased demand due to the rate cut [5][10]. Macroeconomy - There is a significant market expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut, but internal divisions within the Fed suggest caution. The current economic risks in the U.S. include "stagflation," which a rate cut may not effectively address. The focus of monetary policy should remain on stabilizing inflation rather than succumbing to political pressures for short-term growth [10]. Strategy - A-shares are currently evaluated as being within a reasonable valuation range, with no signs of being overvalued. However, increased trading volume may lead to short-term volatility. Historical trends indicate that while short-term fluctuations may occur, they typically do not affect mid-term market trends. Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors with high performance and earnings validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, as well as financial sectors benefiting from increased retail investment [12]. Strategy - The A-share market has outperformed the Hong Kong market in the second half of the year, with significant increases in major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3700 mark, and daily trading volumes have returned to over 2 trillion yuan. The positive performance is attributed to improved market liquidity and the effects of policies aimed at reducing competition. The report analyzes the strengths of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to help investors understand the fundamental performance of both markets [14].