突发！全球大涨，美联储要出大招了

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a nearly 90% probability following Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, which caused significant market movements [2][6]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Position - Chairman Powell indicated that changing economic risks provide sufficient reasons for a rate cut, leading to a surge in market expectations for a September rate reduction [2]. - Prior to Powell's statement, market sentiment had turned pessimistic regarding a rate cut, with predictions dropping below 70% due to comments from various Federal Reserve officials about inflation concerns [7]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced a sharp rise, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.98%, the S&P 500 by 1.64%, and the Nasdaq by 1.97% within an hour [2]. - Gold prices surged by $40 in just half an hour, reflecting heightened investor interest in safe-haven assets [4]. - Cryptocurrencies also saw significant gains, with Bitcoin rising to $116,400 (over 3% increase) and Ethereum reaching $4,614 (nearly 8% increase) [6]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy is facing challenges, particularly in the labor market, which Powell highlighted as a growing risk that necessitates a rate cut to stimulate economic activity [8]. - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, with monthly interest payments around $100 billion, leading to concerns about fiscal sustainability [8][9]. Implications for Markets - The anticipated rate cut is expected to have a more pronounced positive impact on Hong Kong stocks, as they are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy changes, compared to the A-share market, which has been driven by domestic liquidity [11][14]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index futures rose by 2.07% following Powell's comments, indicating strong market sensitivity to the Fed's decisions [12]. Conclusion - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a rate cut is seen as a necessary measure to address both economic and fiscal challenges, with significant implications for global markets, particularly in terms of liquidity and investment flows [10][11].