鲍威尔讲完，市场狂欢！美联储9月降息“大局已定”，然后呢？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts create significant uncertainty in monetary policy, even if a rate cut in September is likely [1][4][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference was interpreted as a strong signal for a potential rate cut in September, but it also highlighted increasing internal divisions within the Fed [3][4]. - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, with rising downward risks in the labor market, suggesting a need for policy adjustments [3][6]. - The market reacted positively, with major stock indices rising and bond yields falling, indicating strong expectations for a September rate cut [4][5]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three camps: - The "doves" advocating for multiple rate cuts due to concerns over labor market weakness [7]. - The "hawks" opposing rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks [7]. - The "centrists" favoring a cautious approach of one rate cut followed by observation [7]. - This division complicates the outlook for future monetary policy, making it difficult to predict subsequent actions after a potential September cut [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The possibility of a "one-and-done" scenario, where only a single rate cut occurs, remains a viable option due to the internal tensions within the Fed [8]. - Future monetary policy decisions will heavily depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, which will influence the Fed's internal dynamics [9]. - The next FOMC meeting will be crucial as it will provide updated economic forecasts and insights into the Fed's future rate path, which may be more significant than the immediate decision on a rate cut [9].