这一轮走势，会复制10年前的行情吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in the A-share market has drawn significant attention, reminiscent of the 2015 bull market, raising concerns about a potential repeat of past market volatility [5][6][13]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a continuous upward trend, with the index approaching 3800 points and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1]. - The interest in the A-share market has even attracted foreign investors, particularly from South Korea, with their holdings increasing from 19.083 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 24.475 billion yuan, a growth of nearly 30% [2][4]. Historical Comparison - The 2015 bull market was characterized by excessive liquidity, primarily driven by foreign capital and unregulated leverage, leading to a significant crash afterward [7][8]. - The market's total value evaporated by 25.5 trillion yuan, a decline of 36%, with over 30% of stocks experiencing more than a 50% drop [6]. Funding Sources - The current market rally is also driven by liquidity, but the sources of funds differ from 2015. The main contributors now are state-backed funds and institutional leverage, rather than foreign capital [9][10]. - The role of foreign capital has been replaced by state-backed funds, which are considered more stable as they aim to support the market [10]. Risk Management - The financial regulatory environment has improved since 2015, with stricter controls on foreign capital and leverage, reducing the risk of a sudden market collapse [12]. - The current market's leverage is primarily held by institutions, which have a stronger risk management capability compared to retail investors who dominated the previous bull market [10][11]. Market Structure - The current market resembles a structural bull market similar to early 2021, where only specific sectors, like technology, are experiencing significant gains while others lag behind [14][15]. - The likelihood of a broad-based bull market is low, as state-backed funds are unlikely to push all stocks up simultaneously, preferring a controlled, gradual increase [15][16]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to either hold onto index-related stocks or strategically position themselves in sectors that are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [17].