鲍威尔讲完，市场狂欢！美联储9月降息“大局已定”，然后呢？

Core Viewpoint - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference is interpreted as a clear signal for a potential rate cut in September, but it also highlights increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Powell's Speech and Market Reaction - Powell indicated that "risk balance seems to be shifting," emphasizing increasing "downside risks" in the labor market, which many view as a strong precursor to a rate cut [2]. - Financial markets reacted positively, with the Dow Jones reaching a historic high and a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly a 7.44 basis point decline in the 2-year yield [3]. - Analysts on Wall Street quickly adjusted their expectations, with Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist suggesting Powell's remarks strongly signal a 25 basis point cut in September [3][6]. Group 2: Divergence within the Federal Reserve - Despite a consensus on a September rate cut, there is significant disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future actions, with decision-makers divided into three camps: dovish, hawkish, and centrist [7][9]. - The dovish camp advocates for multiple rate cuts, while the hawkish camp remains skeptical about the need for any cuts, citing ongoing inflation risks [8]. - The centrist group prefers a cautious approach, suggesting a "one-and-done" strategy, where a single rate cut is followed by a wait-and-see approach [9]. Group 3: Future Data Dependency - Powell's remarks have shifted the market narrative from whether to cut rates in September to how many cuts may follow [10]. - Upcoming employment and inflation data will be crucial in shaping the Federal Reserve's future decisions, as these metrics will influence the internal debate among dovish, hawkish, and centrist members [10]. - The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting will provide new economic forecasts, which will be more significant than the single rate cut decision itself [10].