【招银研究|海外宏观】走向“双宽松”——2025年鲍威尔Jackson Hole央行年会讲话点评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of 3-4 cuts totaling 75-100 basis points, influenced by recent employment data revisions and political pressures from the Trump administration [1][10][13]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - Powell has adopted a dovish stance, indicating a shift in risk balance towards a downward trend in employment and a temporary inflation outlook [3][10]. - The current state of full employment is attributed to a unique balance from simultaneous supply and demand contractions, with significant downward risks anticipated for future employment [3][9]. - Economic growth has notably slowed, with actual GDP growth in the first half of the year at 1.2%, significantly lower than the projected 2.5% for 2024, largely due to a slowdown in consumer expansion [9][10]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart rate cuts, with Powell signaling that the current policy remains restrictive and may need adjustment based on economic outlook and risk balance [10][11]. - The Fed has made two key adjustments to its monetary policy framework: eliminating the inflation compensation strategy and shifting focus from solely full employment to also considering risks of both overheating and cooling in the job market [11][12]. Group 3: Impacts and Outlook - The anticipated rate cuts, combined with the effects of the "Big and Beautiful" legislation, are likely to lead the U.S. macroeconomic policy into a phase of "dual easing," potentially strengthening the economy and employment [13]. - Inflation risks may pose a threat to the upcoming midterm elections, prompting a possible shift in the Trump administration's approach to a combination of "expansive fiscal and stable monetary" policies [13]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Strategies - Market expectations for rate cuts have surged, with significant declines in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities and a drop in the dollar index [14]. - Recommendations include cautiously going long on U.S. Treasuries with shorter durations while being wary of long-duration bonds, and maintaining a short position on the dollar with an awareness of potential reversal risks in the fourth quarter [15].