申万宏观·周度研究成果（8.16-8.22）

Group 1: Deep Topics - The contribution of "export grabbing" to export growth in the first half of the year may be overestimated, with non-US demand recovery and emerging market share increase being key factors for future growth sustainability [9] - The impact of "reciprocal tariffs" and "transshipment trade tariffs" is expected to lead to a short-term decline in exports to ASEAN, but increased investment demand from emerging economies and accelerated urbanization may sustain resilience in exports to these markets next year [29] Group 2: Hot Topics - Recent changes in overseas capital behavior indicate a shift back towards the US driven by the second-quarter earnings season, raising questions about the sustainability of global capital rebalancing [15] - The July fiscal data shows a slowdown in debt funding support and an increase in spending related to people's livelihoods and the service industry [23] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The "shadow Fed chairman" has become a clue for the market's "preemptive" interest rate cut trades since early June, raising deeper questions about the Fed's ability to manipulate interest rates and the yield curve [13] - The US core goods CPI for July came in lower than expected, reflecting ongoing economic dynamics [12]