金融时报：科技股发出警告，AI叙事开始动摇，风险正蔓延至“看不见”的角落

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in tech stocks serves as a warning signal, indicating that risks are shifting from a market heavily reliant on a few tech giants to the private credit sector funding AI infrastructure, which could threaten overall market stability if leading tech stocks falter [1][2]. Group 1: Market Structure and Performance - The impressive performance of global stock markets this year has been largely driven by a few tech giants, with Nvidia's market capitalization reaching $4.3 trillion, equivalent to 1.5 times the total market cap of the UK's FTSE 100 index [3]. - The top 10 companies in the U.S. account for approximately 40% of the S&P 500 index's weight and have contributed one-third of the index's revenue growth over the past year [3]. - This extreme concentration has led to significant market divergence, with the S&P 500 index rising by 9.5% this year, while the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, has only increased by 4.2% [4]. Group 2: AI Investment Concerns - There are growing doubts about the sustainability of the AI narrative, with OpenAI's CEO acknowledging the presence of a "bubble" in AI investments and warning that many investors may incur significant losses [6][7]. - A report from MIT revealed that approximately 95% of organizations investing in AI have seen "zero returns," with only 5% of pilot projects generating actual value, raising concerns for investors hoping for transformative outcomes from AI [7][8]. Group 3: Private Market Risks - The article highlights that risks extend beyond publicly traded stocks, with a concerning trend of substantial funding for AI coming from opaque private markets [9]. - It is estimated that global spending on AI infrastructure will approach $3 trillion over the next three years, with tech giants like Amazon and Alphabet potentially covering only half of these costs [9]. - The remaining funding gap will primarily be filled by private equity, private credit, and venture capital, with UBS reporting that private credit has become a "key engine" for AI growth, with risk exposure in private debt markets surging by $100 billion to approximately $450 billion by early 2025 [10]. - As retail and pension fund investments continue to flow into private markets, there is a growing concern that these markets are sowing the seeds of overheating risk, which could have broader implications for the financial system if specialized lending institutions begin to fail [11].