【广发宏观团队】资产的高成长叙事一般是在什么样的宏观阶段？

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic conditions under which high-growth narratives dominate the market, highlighting that these conditions typically arise after a certain level of macro risk has been released, and nominal growth rates remain low [1][2][3] - It identifies four key characteristics that support high-growth narratives: the release of macro risks, low nominal growth rates, sticky expected returns, and a favorable liquidity environment [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of technological and policy frameworks that create significant narrative space for certain industries, such as AI and semiconductors, which have been pivotal in recent market trends [3] Group 2 - The article notes that Chinese assets are outperforming globally, with domestic markets showing strong trends while overseas markets are experiencing mixed performance [4][5] - It highlights the divergence in asset performance, with U.S. stocks facing valuation resistance and commodities being influenced by supply-demand dynamics [4][5] - The article also discusses the implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations on the bond market, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards potential easing [6][7] Group 3 - The article provides insights into the performance of various asset classes, noting that the A-share market is showing signs of "convexity" with increasing trading volumes and a broadening market width [7][8] - It mentions that the 10-year government bond yield is rising, reflecting expectations of nominal GDP recovery, and discusses the relationship between equity valuations and nominal GDP growth [8][9] - The article outlines the performance of different sectors, with growth stocks leading the market while cyclical and financial sectors lag behind [9][10] Group 4 - The article discusses the impact of external factors on market sentiment, including the implications of recent comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials and the political landscape affecting monetary policy [10][11] - It highlights a research report indicating that despite significant investments in generative AI, most companies have not seen substantial commercial returns, which may affect market sentiment [12][13] - The article also addresses the potential implications of new tariffs on various product categories, which could influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [14][15]